Monday, 15 July 2013

Scary downtrend still acting on gold price but some repair seen. 2013-07-16.

This post will be shorter than the one I lost.

Here are the three charts. They are self-explanatory:

Gold is consolidating, as are the three currency charts USDX, USD:CHF and EUR:USD :

The scary downtrend line defined by the blue line starting at the $1590 top in mid-April before the crash has been broken to the upside but I have drawn in a parallel that encompasses the current price high at $1300 and the late May price high.
So we can perhaps conclude that the great selling pressure starting in mid-April has not gone away, though the price is showing strength equal to the mid-May top by getting to this upper parallel. The price needs to push through this soon to illustrate to bulls that selling pressure has abated as many commentators have told us in the last week.
I am not so sure. I want evidence:

I think a move up from here would be quite promising and would show that buying pressure is accelerating with respect to selling pressure.

I have also drawn in a new pitchfork trend for 2013, similar to a previous one but the median line refers back to a low in late December 2012. Thoday's price action is right on the median line of this channel and the April and June lows are on the lower line, so I consider this to be quite a good channel. There are a coupld of other minor highs on the median line from late April and late May too. Also the mid-May low and the mid-June low are parallel to the trend.

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