Thursday, 27 April 2017

Gold holding on to $1264 by its fingernails.

Gold is struggling to hold on to $1264 right now and struggling to avoid breaking below the black line on the chart below. It's holding on for dear life as I write at $1264.30/1265.30 Bid/Ask. If it doesn't, the $1150-1260 range is again in play (gold triangle). I referred to this area as no man's land. Note also the large amount of trading along the black line in 2017, an attempt by the bulls to regain control.

The decision point may be when the black line and green line meet (horizontal support/resistance meets the black line at $1264):






Friday, 14 April 2017

Gold jumps over $1250 and $1264 resistances to land around $1280

Gold jumped over $1250 and $1264 resistances to land around $1280, back in the black pitchfork and therefore back into the initial uptrend channel of the potential new bull market:


$1145 target still in play despite bullish move in gold.

In my previous gold analysis, I proposed bullish and bearish targets:

Bearish potential target: $1145 at bottom line of blue pitchfork.
Bullish potential target: $1250 to resistance at bottom line of black pitchfork.

After hitting resistance at $1250 it looked possible that gold would resume its way down towards $1145. However gold has now popped above $250 and also above the $1264 resistance shown on the second chart to land near $1280, inside the black fork (3rd chart).






CPI inflation forecasts for March and April 2017

Here are my inflation model forecasts for March and April USA CPI:
The weakest model is Oil9. The others are quite consistent, using current oil and gasoline price action combined with EIA forecasts for oil and gasoline:

Month Oil8 OIl9 Oil10 Gasol11 Gasol12 CPI BLS actual
Feb'17 2.80 2.75 2.76 2.78 2.81 2.7
Mar'17 2.62 2.29 2.90 2.46 2.51 TBA
Apr'17 2.28 2.12 2.40 2.33 2.38 TBA

March CPI is to be announced any minute now.

US CPI Inflation forecasts for Mar and April 2017. Recorded 13 Apr 2017. These geometric and polynomial forecasts give lower inflation figures than purely linear (striaght line formula forecasts and match Feb's inflaiton well (2.7-2.8% against actual published 2.7%). They indicate figures of 2.5-2.9% for March and 2.3-2.4% for April, except for one outlier.
Linear forecasts for Feb and Mar were around 3.1-3.2 and 3.3-3.5 approx). I have modeified the models therefore to geometric models especially in the light of the bureau of Labor Statistics' US  Consumer Price Index inflation figures using geometric weightings for almost all of its components.

Video here explaining models with charts:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dd5SeKGaX8M

Website:
https://www.patreon.com/bellamyresearch