Thursday, 4 July 2013

Gold - possible bullish pennant after Friday's move and consolidation - targets 1278 and 1338? QE2 rise of gold now GONE!

The gold price is stuck beneath a fairly formidable resistance line at the moment that goes back to the $1590 top before the mid-April crash (but was temporarily broken once before). This is the sloping blue line on the chart below.

However, it has formed a bullish pennant after Friday's move up from $1180 to $1270. This formation has its apex at $1249 and could break out from about $1250 if traders chose to do so.

The initial target might be a move equal to the depth of the pennant above the apex, which would take the price to the top line of the pitchfork channel at $1278. A more bulllish target would be a move equal to the first upmove from $1180 to $1267, taking the price to around $1338. This would also be the measured move from the inverse head and shoulders below the blue line.

I have noted that the current resistance around $1250 to $1260 is equal to the peak of gold before Quantitative Easing Round 2 (QE2) in mid-2010, which was at $1266.

This means that the inflationary effects of QE2 and QE3 have been erased as far as gold price is concerned. All gone. Same for silver, that was at about $18 at the time. I don't know if this makes the case for a price low that was set at $1180 gold and $18 ssilver last week. Maybe they could still overshoot to the downside? The 3 Peakjs and a Domed House pattern on gold has almost entirely been retraced too (target for that wass $1155).



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