Tuesday, 6 March 2012

Gold breakout annihilated: target now 1610-1625 dollars for this correction? 2012-03-06 2 pm GMT

My downside target for gold for this correction is 1610-1625 dollars. I was drawing this over the weekend but it is already coming true today! Charts to follow below, later today.

Gold is likely either to fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (of its upmove from the low to the latest high) which is about £1625 or it might go further to retest the upper line of the pennant pattern that it has formed over the last few months. That would be around $1610.

I fancy that silver is retracing 50% of its recent upmove from the bottom at $26.50 (3rd chart).

Anyway, later today (Tuesday) the gold A-B-C corrective move is obvious on the chart but might just have completed in the 1670s. It still looks to me that it might have a way to run though. The C leg down is still much smaller than the A leg down. The intermediate B up wave was a bit pathetic, only about 38% of the size of the A wave down.

At the moment, 50% (half) of the entire upmove in gold has been wiped out. That is in fact a complete annihilation of the breakout move from 24th January as the chart shows, when there was a spectacular up day.

Bullish news would be that silver is still above its January 24th level and has a final target for the correction to be 50% of the upmove rather than the 61.8% or more for gold. This sort of strength in silver relative to gold might be unexpected if it is the strong dollar and credit problems with tightening credit spreads that are affecting the markets. One might have expected silver to underperform here but that is not the situation we are seeing at this time.

The silver chart has been looking quite a bit more 'perky' than gols as we can see above. Interesting that the big outperformance in silver came just before the crash. I think that has happened a few times before!

Despite all the rhetoric about manipulation, we can see that the gold and silver hiccup coincides with a decent sized rally in the dollar as the Europeans embraced their version of QE to infinity with a 700 billion injection last week, whereas Bernanke pretended to be hawkish in not annoucing QE3 in the USA: