Tuesday, 30 October 2018

Gold at back-test of pitchfork failure line in USD and also at resistance in GBP.

Gold is very close to its back-test of pitchfork failure line from a pattern in force since 2015. Maybe it already happened. Maybe a push to around $1250 would complete it:

It's always difficult to nail these patterns exactly, since it depends if you take daily or weekly charts and if you take intraday or closing prices as the pivot points.
The weekly chart says the high might already be in:
gold pitchforks chart weekly bear market 20181024 26
A little mischief with the above chart might suggest a $970-980 target:
gold possible bear market target on channel doubling Andrews pitchforks 970
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, gold in GBP (pounds) has just nudged to or into the resistance zone above 960; another back-test perhaps? Coincidence?
gold GBP hit 970GBP in resistance zone 960plus

Saturday, 18 August 2018

Gold broken down from long term bullish structure since 2010/2011

Gold has broken down from long term bullish structure since 2010/2011.

It looks bad. It looks awful, in fact. The 2016 bull market run could be over according to this - or very nearly.

Targets $1085 or $920 to downside on longer term lower chart.

$1085 is very near $1087 (50% retracement of entire bull market price run from $253 in 1999 to $1923 in 2011).

$920 is the level that comes from a channel doubling of the blue pitchfork, which makes geometric sense and would of course be a new bear market low.

Possibility of a rally to re-test (to back-test) the $1235 breakdown at the bottom of the fork but maybe it has been back-tested already on a smaller scale (upper chart). The gross oversold condition right now might indicate a technical rally. It would be interesting to see if any such rally could make it to $1235+.

The $1235 area was mentioned on an interesting YouTube video here from Alessio Rastani of leadingtrader.com (from Elliott Wave analysis)
Crash in Gold... What Happens Now?

Saturday, 7 July 2018

Line in the sand for gold around $1230-1232 or maybe $1238-1240 (Charts).

For me, the line in the sand for this gold mini bull market (or bear market rally?) since December 2015 is around $1230-1232. If this is broken tot he downside, it looks like a much longer correction in the mini bull run. This pattern is 2.5 years old now, 30 months and so you might expect a good year's correction to go on if the uptrend is broken by a move below about $1230-1232.

Andrew's pitchfork giving $1232 as an allowable low but drawing these things can sometimes be not totally precise - and sometimes they are just a little off the trend channel that emerges, just a little, mind:

With a simple trend line, the situation is more tight, $1238 actually breaks the line by a tiny bit intraday:

Going between aily closes (thin red line below) gives the same result actually. $1238 was an intraday dip below the line. Now, where did it close?

The lowest close was around $1240, so gold has just got away with it so far. On the intraday (green line) or daily close level (blue line), the support from the lows last December has held - JUST!

It's hanging on by the skin of its teeth. really marginal here. Is someone looking for that classic pattern that has a false breakout whose name eludes me?

The evergreen http://www.kitco.com site has this for today:
"Bid/Ask 1242.10 / 1243.10
Low/High 1235.80 / 1246.90"
Oops. The intraday support at $1238 was broken to $1235.80. Price has recovered to $1242.10 as of now.
Maybe Friday's close is going to tell the story or lead up the garden path if someone paints the charts below the lines inthe sand. However, if they CAN paint the charts, what does that say about the strength of the market?

Tuesday, 3 July 2018

Possible coins for sale English Crowns, Halfcrowns, etc.

Possible coins for sale English Crowns, Halfcrowns, etc.

I am posting here pictures of some potential coins for sale, since the pictures are quite large for sending by email.

Firstly 1927 George V Proof Set (6 silver coins), about FDC (Spink 2014 book price £700 in FDC but price negotiable).

Group pictures (scans) are first and some individual coins (photos) are shown below that:

Please click to enlarge:

1826 Penny Choice Uncirculated (4 pictures):

1845 Crown cinquefoil stops Choice GEF / AU 
I would estimate an easy potential AU58 (4 pictures):

1820 Halfcrown Uncirculated (4 pictures):

1858 Penny about Unc (2 pictures):

1887 Crown toned Uncirculated (2 pictures):

1853 Sovereign WW relief NGC MS63 (2 pictures)

 1871 Sovereign die#27 ANACS MS63 (5 pictures)

Tuesday, 26 June 2018

Oil and gasoline based models for CPI inflation forecasting - reprint 3

No adjustment to models and April CPI inflation comes in very close to my forecasts.

April 2017 USA CPI inflation has come in very close to my forecasts, made on this blog during early April.

No adjustment to models and April CPI inflation announcement on 12 May 2017 comes in at 2.2%, very close to my forecasts made more than a month ago:


The models I have followed most closely are geometric gasoline and geometric oil with 2 month moving average data being used for the latter. These models forecast 2.28% and 2.33% for April CPI, even without any adjustment in the models to take into account March's figures.

So what we appear to have is slowly falling inflation because of the slowing in year over year increases min oil and therefore gasoline prices. Sub 2% inflation probably beckons (according to the BLS figures anyway) for later in the year, as shown in the above link.

Oil and gasoline based models for CPI inflation forecasting - reprint 2

CPI inflation forecasts for March and April 2017

Here are my inflation model forecasts for March and April USA CPI:
The weakest model is Oil9. The others are quite consistent, using current oil and gasoline price action combined with EIA forecasts for oil and gasoline:

Month Oil8 OIl9 Oil10 Gasol11 Gasol12 CPI BLS actual
Feb'17 2.80 2.75 2.76 2.78 2.81 2.7
Mar'17 2.62 2.29 2.90 2.46 2.51 TBA
Apr'17 2.28 2.12 2.40 2.33 2.38 TBA

March CPI is to be announced any minute now.

US CPI Inflation forecasts for Mar and April 2017. Recorded 13 Apr 2017. These geometric and polynomial forecasts give lower inflation figures than purely linear (striaght line formula forecasts and match Feb's inflaiton well (2.7-2.8% against actual published 2.7%). They indicate figures of 2.5-2.9% for March and 2.3-2.4% for April, except for one outlier.
Linear forecasts for Feb and Mar were around 3.1-3.2 and 3.3-3.5 approx). I have modeified the models therefore to geometric models especially in the light of the bureau of Labor Statistics' US  Consumer Price Index inflation figures using geometric weightings for almost all of its components.

Video here explaining models with charts:

Oil and gasoline based models for CPI inflation forecasting - reprint 1

My first geometric oil models for forecasting US CPI in 2017.

23 March 2017:
I have a new geometric oil model (well, 3 variants, models 8, 9 & 10) that have come up with slightly lower inflation figures than I had forecast before. I was looking into the possible uncertainties in the regression line analysis that undelies the models and there is some, due to the scatter in the data. Anyway, the best estimates are now shown on the following chart until July 2017:

This incorporates oil price data to February 2017 and also EIA forecast prices for the months up until July 2017.

Closer view:

I am now looking at models based on retail and wholesale gasoline prices (including current price action and EIA forecasts)

Also, the two videos are here (that were recorded in advance of the CPI report on 15 March):

Inflation Forecasting and Energy Prices Introduction to Concepts


CPI inflation forecast models for USA February and March 2017.