So much so, that one can take the year over year energy price changes as given by the BLS in their inflation reports and predict the All Items inflation rate to within about +/- 0.1%.
In the following chart, I have used the energy price % changes and scaled them by the weighting that the BLS gives them and then simply added a constant to this figure (e.g. 1.6%) and overlaid it on the CPI all items index graph.
Blue line is CPI All Items index year over year for each month reported
Red line is modelled CPI based on energy price change times its given weight each month
Green line is modelled CPI based on energy price times given its weight adjusted by factor of x1.2
Purple line is modelled CPI based on energy price at weighting of 9%
In any case, CPI inflation is about 1.6% + the energy price multiplied by its weighting.
I believe that this shows that inflation is critically dependent on energy price changes as the energy bear market might be starting to flatten out and turn up. This has big implications for interest rate policy and gold prices going forward:
The basic comparison between CPI and energy price changes: