OK, it's been 4 weeks since the last p[ost by me. I couldn't believeit was so long. During that time, gold has done nothing positive, silvee has done nothing positive.
Gold reached a breakout point at $1760 on its pennant formation and then completely broke down and smashed down right out of the pennant by a long way. Silver went under $30.
Interestingly, on the Point & Firgure chart on silver on http://www.stockcharts.com/, the PO (Price Objective) on the chart for silver swiched right from $46.0 to $22.00 in an instant! Take a look!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER
Gold's smash down from the potentially bullish pennant was a bit of a shock and it just cratered below $1600. Europe is a mess.
While the EU is a mess that dollar index moved above 80 to 81+. Imagine what might happen to gold and silve if the USDX goes up to 90 as it did in 2008. They will get SLAUGHTERED.
Just an opinion, remember I am a useless trader. No advice is intended or implied in this post. This is just commentary.
Tuesday, 20 December 2011
Wednesday, 23 November 2011
Bearish for silver, undecided for gold? 2011-11-23
"You never had the things you thought you should have had,
And you'll not get them now,
And all the while, in perfect time, your tears are falling on the ground
No, No, No don't cry..."
Hey, that's the story of my life and maybe the story of the goldbugs' and especially the silverbugs' life!
Are we still gonna get the big drop to $1400 gold and $20 silver?
Well, these charts say maybe not for gold and maybe yes for silver.
This is not investment advice as Al Korelin says - because I am a crap investor.
And you'll not get them now,
And all the while, in perfect time, your tears are falling on the ground
No, No, No don't cry..."
Are we still gonna get the big drop to $1400 gold and $20 silver?
Well, these charts say maybe not for gold and maybe yes for silver.
This is not investment advice as Al Korelin says - because I am a crap investor.
Saturday, 1 October 2011
Clive Maund bearish, my call on Fresnillo and the Pt:Au ratio breakdown. 2011-10-02
I liked Clive Maund's commentaries on silver recently:
As someone interested in the silver miner Fresnillo that is on the UK stock market (I live in the UK and have some Fresnillo shares), I had noticed a magnificent bearish rising wedge pattern that had formed as it made repeated new highs in the face of poor performance from silver and the rest of the stock market:
This pattern worked out wonderfully and the price crashed to below 1600, the target zone.
I wondered if the target for the deline in gold and silver had been reached after this decline in Fresnillo. So, one might have expected a bounce here, perhaps. Also, there is a gap down in the decline between about 1920 and 1860 that ought to be filled on the upside.
However, the silver chart has looked so ominously like 2008 since May this year, with a tepid post-decline rally being like that in 2008. So I am not sure that it is the end of the decline and it is great to see an important commentator whom I have watched since about 2002 give great charts to show this.
There instinctively looks like a target of about $21, which was the last major high in silver from March 2008, in the same way as the late 2008 silver crash went to the previous major high from 2004 (and 1998) at $8.40 after a brief consolidation in the $15 area.
To my view, the $50 top now = the $21 top in 2008, $32.50 now = £16 in 2008 and $21 now is potentially the bottom = $8.40 in the 2008 crash.
It would also be a magnificent 60% decline from $50 to near $20, the same percentage as 2008. The big worry is that we haven't had big bank failures yet and if we do get them we could easily get a crash to $20 or maybe even lower!
To me the chart of Fresnillo crashed below the 1600 target to less than 1500 - and 1600 now looks to me a bit like potential resistance. If that is true, then things could get very nasty quite soon in the silver space. The signals though are a bit mixed.
More nasty signs are the breakdown of the platinum:gold ratio below the 2008 low of 0.965 and the recent upsurge in the gold:silver ratio.
I am going to watching Clive Maund's commentaries like a hawk to see if he is correct.
I wonder though if silver might hold up better this time, since after going down to $8.40 in 2008, it then went up by nearly x6 to $49.75! I wonder if that might bring buyers in sooner this time, anticipating this possibility. It's a fascinating market; history is being made here.
Thursday, 22 September 2011
The bearish rising wedge in Fresnillo was bearish! + 2011=1933? 2011-09-22 2213 UK time BST
Two posts ago I observed the bearish rising wedge pattern in Fresnillo the key silver miner.
Well, that pattern has indeed worked out and was indeed bearish!
Please note: This is not investment advice in any way, merely a market observation about a stock that (unfortunately right now!) I do own to a small degree.
Here's a little idea. If this crash thing in the markets continues with strengthening US dollar, then we are in the second leg of the great deleveraging. That would be like 1933, perhaps.
For me,
1. Year 2000 = 1929 = crash of speculative stock market bubble
2. Year 2008 credit crash in USA etc. = 1931 crash in Credit-Anstalt in Austria, then Germany, then UK off the gold standard leaving only USA on godl standard (most prudent creditor nation). Senior currency GB pound debased while new senior currency US dollar remains prudent for a while.
3. Year 2011 = 1933 = crash in the stronger currency Euro area, Germany being somewhat equivalent to USA in the 1930s as more prudent creditor nation. Greece is on the equivalent of the gold standard in 2011 with no printing press, thus credit collapse moves to those weaker Eurozone nations locked into Germanic tight monetary policy, similar to to crash moving to the USA in 1933 because it remained on gold when all around were debasing.
WATCH OUT! 1933 IS ABOUT!
Well, that pattern has indeed worked out and was indeed bearish!
Please note: This is not investment advice in any way, merely a market observation about a stock that (unfortunately right now!) I do own to a small degree.
Here's a little idea. If this crash thing in the markets continues with strengthening US dollar, then we are in the second leg of the great deleveraging. That would be like 1933, perhaps.
For me,
1. Year 2000 = 1929 = crash of speculative stock market bubble
2. Year 2008 credit crash in USA etc. = 1931 crash in Credit-Anstalt in Austria, then Germany, then UK off the gold standard leaving only USA on godl standard (most prudent creditor nation). Senior currency GB pound debased while new senior currency US dollar remains prudent for a while.
3. Year 2011 = 1933 = crash in the stronger currency Euro area, Germany being somewhat equivalent to USA in the 1930s as more prudent creditor nation. Greece is on the equivalent of the gold standard in 2011 with no printing press, thus credit collapse moves to those weaker Eurozone nations locked into Germanic tight monetary policy, similar to to crash moving to the USA in 1933 because it remained on gold when all around were debasing.
WATCH OUT! 1933 IS ABOUT!
Tuesday, 20 September 2011
The platinum:gold ratio a sign of credit crunch #2? 2011-09-20 1858 BST UK time
Here is a great chart. This is the chart of the platinum:gold ratio from stockcharts.com. Recently, the ratio has dipped below 1.0, a rare and remarkable thing for recent years.
I have been wondering whether it would be a good idea to swap some gold for platinum but here in the UK there is a prohibitive VAT tax on platinum of 20%, isn't that outrageous? That tax is on most things by the way; oh, the boundless greed of government!
I just listened to a super interview with Rick Rule on King World News, where he gives his always interesting view of the markets. This time he gives some time to platinum.
I decided to pull the $PLAT:$GOLD chart up again on stockcharts during his interview and lo and behold, the ratio is making a double bottom as I write at a ratio of about 0.97!
The first low was in the credit crunch of 2008 and we are right back at that low again, making an almost perfect double bottom. There has been a very slight bounce but it would be fascinating to see whether the ratio makes a double bottom and rallies or is it breaks down on this current Greek and Eurozone credit distress below 0.97 and plunges to a new low.
At any rate, one might therefore think of the gold to platinum ratio (that way around) as acting like a credit spread; this ratio is making a double top, or maybe it is about to break above 1.03 to a new high. Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors and Howe Street radio talks of the gold:silver ratio acting like a credit sptread. I am gonna ask him if he thinks the gold:platinum ratio is similar.
Here is the gold:platinum ratio chart (the inverse of the one above).
I just listened to a super interview with Rick Rule on King World News, where he gives his always interesting view of the markets. This time he gives some time to platinum.
I decided to pull the $PLAT:$GOLD chart up again on stockcharts during his interview and lo and behold, the ratio is making a double bottom as I write at a ratio of about 0.97!
The first low was in the credit crunch of 2008 and we are right back at that low again, making an almost perfect double bottom. There has been a very slight bounce but it would be fascinating to see whether the ratio makes a double bottom and rallies or is it breaks down on this current Greek and Eurozone credit distress below 0.97 and plunges to a new low.
At any rate, one might therefore think of the gold to platinum ratio (that way around) as acting like a credit spread; this ratio is making a double top, or maybe it is about to break above 1.03 to a new high. Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors and Howe Street radio talks of the gold:silver ratio acting like a credit sptread. I am gonna ask him if he thinks the gold:platinum ratio is similar.
Here is the gold:platinum ratio chart (the inverse of the one above).
Monday, 12 September 2011
Is this a perfect rising wedge pattern? 2011-09-12
I was looking at the new highs of silver miner Fresnillo thinking, "Great! I own some of this stock and it's going up repeatedly to new highs!" A little later, I read an article on bearish rising wedges and then I thought, "Uh oh!!"
Here is the chart:
Oh well, the chart won't come up on my stupid computer. Look at it here!:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?FRES.L
and tell me that it isn't an amazing example of a bearish rising wedge. Now some analysts say that this pattern is usually found in bear markets though here we have new highs with Fresnillo in a bull market instead.
The target might be about 1600 for Fresnillo since the downmove usually wipes out the entire upmove made while the wedge was forming. Note the lowering volume at each of the new highs, typical of the bearish rising wedge formation.
It will be fascinating to see if this wedge pattern works out or if Fresnillo takes off instead.
1. Wedge formed:
Here is the chart:
Oh well, the chart won't come up on my stupid computer. Look at it here!:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?FRES.L
and tell me that it isn't an amazing example of a bearish rising wedge. Now some analysts say that this pattern is usually found in bear markets though here we have new highs with Fresnillo in a bull market instead.
The target might be about 1600 for Fresnillo since the downmove usually wipes out the entire upmove made while the wedge was forming. Note the lowering volume at each of the new highs, typical of the bearish rising wedge formation.
It will be fascinating to see if this wedge pattern works out or if Fresnillo takes off instead.
1. Wedge formed:
2. Breakdown? :
Saturday, 27 August 2011
Gold - are we at Point Z already? P&F and daily charts look like silver
The charts of gold and silver in the last post showed some similarities over a period of a couple of years and my wondering whether the move in gold this August to next May could follow the move in silver August 2010 to May 2011 in a magnificent top.
The gold move has been more parabolic than the silver move was in the early stage of its rally from $18 to $50. The action in gold is a bit like the ending action in silver near $49 if you look at the http://www.stockcharts.com/ daily and point and figure charts in gallery view.
Silver at $49.50 or so did a double top within about a week. The first top was on Sunday night followed by a $5 drop all of the next day to the mid-40s level. The next top was the next Sunday night followed by the $6 drop in 11 minutes and a follow through drop to $32. They are chronicled in other posts and charts on this blog.
If gold is at point Z, ie at the top like silver was near $50, then it has happened much faster in gold than it did in silver. Silver took 8 months to get to $50 while gold has topped at $1920 in as many weeks.
Pierre Lassonde says "September is always a good month for gold" inhis KWN interview and sees an attack on $2000 in September.
The alternative case would be an ABC type correction in gold (A-wave down already happened and we are in wave B up, then the C wave would be to follow) or we could double top at $1920 like silver did at $49.50 and have a crash and burn for a while in gold.
This could prepare for a credit crisis crash in all assets this autumn with gold to $1400 and silver to $20 or so and an Au:Ag ratio of 70:1.
The alternative scenarios are that gold is at an earlier stage in this move. Interestingly, the first correction in this move on the gold daily chart doesn't even show on the weekly chart. This second correction is obvious on the weekly chart, a bit like the Christmas 2010 correction in silver. In that case, gold could have much further to run.
There are limits to 'Visual Analysis' as James Dines describes 'Technical Analysis'. Gold looks overbought at $1900 so needed a pullback, if only for a few days or weeks.
I find this move to $1900+ a little scary. The gold price topped £1000 sterling during the GATA conference in London, when it also topped Jim Sinclair's $1650 too. Soon gold was at $1900 or £1130. Amazing. A bonfire of all the currencies, except gold. We are in deep crisis with 'new levels of government with whole new powers' sa quoted on Jim Puplava's show this week. Unfoirtunately those powerful people seem powerless to stop the wreckage of our lives. Or maybe they want it.
The gold move has been more parabolic than the silver move was in the early stage of its rally from $18 to $50. The action in gold is a bit like the ending action in silver near $49 if you look at the http://www.stockcharts.com/ daily and point and figure charts in gallery view.
Silver at $49.50 or so did a double top within about a week. The first top was on Sunday night followed by a $5 drop all of the next day to the mid-40s level. The next top was the next Sunday night followed by the $6 drop in 11 minutes and a follow through drop to $32. They are chronicled in other posts and charts on this blog.
If gold is at point Z, ie at the top like silver was near $50, then it has happened much faster in gold than it did in silver. Silver took 8 months to get to $50 while gold has topped at $1920 in as many weeks.
Pierre Lassonde says "September is always a good month for gold" inhis KWN interview and sees an attack on $2000 in September.
The alternative case would be an ABC type correction in gold (A-wave down already happened and we are in wave B up, then the C wave would be to follow) or we could double top at $1920 like silver did at $49.50 and have a crash and burn for a while in gold.
This could prepare for a credit crisis crash in all assets this autumn with gold to $1400 and silver to $20 or so and an Au:Ag ratio of 70:1.
The alternative scenarios are that gold is at an earlier stage in this move. Interestingly, the first correction in this move on the gold daily chart doesn't even show on the weekly chart. This second correction is obvious on the weekly chart, a bit like the Christmas 2010 correction in silver. In that case, gold could have much further to run.
There are limits to 'Visual Analysis' as James Dines describes 'Technical Analysis'. Gold looks overbought at $1900 so needed a pullback, if only for a few days or weeks.
I find this move to $1900+ a little scary. The gold price topped £1000 sterling during the GATA conference in London, when it also topped Jim Sinclair's $1650 too. Soon gold was at $1900 or £1130. Amazing. A bonfire of all the currencies, except gold. We are in deep crisis with 'new levels of government with whole new powers' sa quoted on Jim Puplava's show this week. Unfoirtunately those powerful people seem powerless to stop the wreckage of our lives. Or maybe they want it.
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