Thursday, 22 September 2011

The bearish rising wedge in Fresnillo was bearish! + 2011=1933? 2011-09-22 2213 UK time BST

Two posts ago I observed the bearish rising wedge pattern in Fresnillo the key silver miner.

Well, that pattern has indeed worked out and was indeed bearish!

Please note: This is not investment advice in any way, merely a market observation about a stock that (unfortunately right now!) I do own to a small degree.

Here's a little idea. If this crash thing in the markets continues with strengthening US dollar, then we are in the second leg of the great deleveraging. That would be like 1933, perhaps.

For me,
1. Year 2000 = 1929 = crash of speculative stock market bubble
2. Year 2008  credit crash in USA etc. = 1931 crash in Credit-Anstalt in Austria, then Germany, then UK off the gold standard leaving only USA on godl standard (most prudent creditor nation). Senior currency GB pound debased while new senior currency US dollar remains prudent for a while.
3. Year 2011 = 1933 = crash in the stronger currency Euro area, Germany being somewhat equivalent to USA in the 1930s as more prudent creditor nation. Greece is on the equivalent of the gold standard in 2011 with no printing press, thus credit collapse moves to those weaker Eurozone nations locked into Germanic tight monetary policy, similar to to crash moving to the USA in 1933 because it remained on gold when all around were debasing.


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