Saturday, 21 November 2009

Fabulous interviews:Eric King with Jim Sinclair and Pierre Lassonde: 2009-11-21

Fabulous interviews:Eric King with Jim Sinclair and Pierre Lassonde: 2009-11-21
Saturday 12st November 2009 at 11:43 am

Two really superb interviews by Eric King (two of many, a superb site) were put on last week. One is with the legendary Mr. Gold, Jim Sinclaur, the other is with Pierre Lassonde, former boss of Franco-Nevada and Newmont Mining.

Jim Sinclair:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/11/13_Jim_Sinclair.html

Pierre Lassonde:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/11/6_Pierre_Lassonde.html

They are both well worth a listen!

So is the Matt Simmons interview regarding Peak Oil on the same website:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2009/11/13_Matthew_R._Simmons.html

Happy listening!

Gold closes at weekly high for second week! 2009-11-21

Gold closes at weekly high for second week! 2009-11-21
Saturday 21 November 2009 at 10:51

Here are the closing prices from Kitco on Friday night:

Bid/Ask: 1150.90-1151.90
Low/High: 1150.90-1151.90

So it closes at the exact high at the end of the week. I have heardly ever seen this before in 8 years watching the gold market. Except for last week, when gold closed practically at the high on Friday's close.

Nov 13, 2009 17:15 NY Time
Bid/Ask 1118.50 - 1119.50
Low/High 1101.90 - 1120.40

Is that bearish action?

Maybe we do have a speculative fautures rally right now as John Nadler states in te LA Times.
Gold market disconnect: Record prices, but not demand
November 20, 2009 2:42 pm

The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows an all-time record of short position of the major gold banks; this often happens before a big price tumble. However, on new gold price highs, these positions have tended to increase higher than at the previous peak. See this great essay on gold Commitment of Traders numbers by Adam Hamilton at Zeal Intelligence:
http://www.zealllc.com/2009/goldcot3.htm
and it might be a good idea to take a look at its predecessors too.

Remember that this time last year, gold dipped to $680 from $1000 during the credit crunch and demand was up a lot at that $680 price. Premiums on coins were huge (I heard from a coin dealer this week that at a major coin show, premiums on US pre-1933 $20s are huge again).

Perhaps you can't expect demand at $1150 to be the same as demand was a year ago at $680!

Although it is Indian gold demand that is supposed to be down this year (apart from their central bank buying 200 tonnes at $1045 per ounce a couple of weeks ago, perhaps showing the lead to their people), Kitco linked to this article. Interesting.

In India, you're in gold's own country - Times of India, Nov 21 2009 2:03AM

Friday, 13 November 2009

Forecasting skills of John Nadler = C-minus. 2009-11-13

Forecasting skills of John Nadler = C-minus. 2009-11-13

It was time to take a look and try to find what perennial bearish John Nadler at Kitco who is the wet blanket for all gold investors had forecast for the 2008 price. I seemed to recall that he mentioned about US $740 as the price for gold for 2009 but I might have been wrong, so I listened to some downloaded interviews and then google'd a bit:

Here he mentions India’s Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Assocham):http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/feb262009A.html
who forecast:
"$740 price for same, come next year. Start sending them 'why are you a bear' e-mails, shall we?"
on 26 Feb 2009.
He seems to give this some credibility. Maybe he mentioned this price in some online interview around that time. He added:
"some players see every day that passes with gold spending time above $900 as a reason for messianic fervor. ... The L.A. Times finds that 'gold already has been widely labeled "the next bubble.' "
There's always hope, eh, John?

Here:
http://arch0708.goldtent.net/2007/10/24/kitco-is-a-cretini-knew-it/
from 24 October 2007.
"Nadler’s forecast was $665 for one year from now and $775 in five year’s time."

Actually he wasn't that far off on the first one because gold dipped to about $680 in the credit crunch.

The weekly chart on stockcharts.com :
http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$gold
shows the low of 681 that occurred in October 2008 so he gets an 'A' grade for that one, falling into the deflationist camp with Robert Prechter I guess. No gold bugs predicted that so it is not wise merely to dismiss John Nadler. However the deflationists are a bit like a stopped clock. They were correct on one occasion, that was September to November 2008. Will they be right again?

However, John is getting a D-minus or possibly an F for his 2009 forcast because as you can see from adding a 45 week moving average to the weekly chart for gold, the average price for 2009 is around $950-960, so he is low by a clear $200!

A poster here recalls a forecast for $640!
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=52872&page=4
"$640 gold in 2009 predicted Mr. Nadler. Is there no accountability for guys like this"

Here he proposes that 2009 investment demand will slow:
http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=289004&cl=16587014&src=finance&ch=633473
and says will it end up at $900, 800 or 700 - he's not sure, no mention of $1100!

This post recalls:
https://www.kitcomm.com/showthread.php?t=52872
"John Nadler, senior Kitco analyst, predicted gold would trade between 640$ and 940$ an ounce for 2009. At the moment, gold is over $1100 an ounce."

On The Gold Report interview he says:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/GoldReport/oct272008.html
TGR: Earlier you suggested that in a deflationary period or one just slightly inflationary, gold might be somewhere in the $500-$600 range. But over the longer term, you think it is more likely to stabilize somewhere between $650 and $850?
JN: I think that’s what we’re looking at in order to reflect current levels of supply and demand, basically make the mining community reasonably happy and keep India buying, which it’s currently not. Anything over $850 is just too much as far as they’re concerned, and they’ve demonstrated that stance for most of this year. ... We’re in Indian Festival season and they’re lamenting about very poor sales.

One thing he mentioned that I missed:
"I think in part that’s one of the things that delayed supplies from Valcambi, one of the refiners in Switzerland, which is probably trying to focus on ramping up to send a gazillion one-gram coins throughout India"

True that Indian demand has been low in 2008 and now also in 2009. Except for the Indian Central Bank, that is!
India buys 200 tonnes of IMF gold - Telegraph
3 Nov 2009 ... The International Monetary Fund has sold 200 tonnes of gold to the Reserve Bank of India for $6.7bn (£4.1bn). The sale represents almost ...
ACtually, I am not sure they are correct there. It's half of what they are selliing, ie half of 400 tonnes for sale. They have more but technically doesn't it belong to the central banks of the member countries. So perhaps it's half of the maximum they can sell without taking it from the member countries' banks. Too complicated! Ever wondered if some of this central bank gold could have multiple claims against it?

http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/jan082009B.html
Meanwhile, on the price projections front, our friends at HSBC have issued theirs today, and they read as follows according to Reuters' Jan Harvey
"HSBC raised its 2009 gold forecast to $825 an ounce from $800, and its 2010 price view to $775 from $725, but left its long-term forecast at $700."

No mention of Bill Murphy's forecast!!!!!!! ;-)

Even deflationist Mike Mish Shedlock disagrees with Nadler's assertion that gold is not in a bull market (Nadler echoes here Paul van Eeden's opinion):
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14731.html
It seems to me that if gold isn't in a bull market then nothing is!

Here:
http://www.kitco.com/ind/nadler/aug152008A.html
he said,
"If anything, festival-related buying might prevent a faster meltdown towards $700, but if the trends in commodities continue along their current path, it will not be able to turn the gold market ... around and back into bull mode," said Nadler.

Fair enough but the commodities trends did reverse so his caveat was met. However, he seems to love being pessimistic on the gold price!

HOWEVER,

'Even so, Nadler said he remains a "strong advocate of a core insurance position in gold bullion. Trouble, it seems, is always but one headline away from undoing the best-laid plans." '

Isn't that fair enough? With these pullbacks gold bugs get the chance to load up yet another time!

As long as you don't die before you can cash in a good profit!

Thursday, 8 October 2009

25 Gold Prices over $1000! 2009-10-08

Thursday 8th October 2009 at 23:03
25 London Gold Prices over $1000!

Taken fromL
http://www.kitco.com/gold.londonfix.html
Past Historical London Fix - Current Year

Date
Gold AM
Gold PM

2009-10-07
1047.00
1040.25

2009-10-06
1020.25
1038.75

2009-10-05
1004.25
1005.50

2009-10-02
998.00
1003.50

2009-10-01
1005.75
1004.75

2009-09-30
1001.25
995.75

2009-09-29
991.75
989.50

2009-09-28
990.50
991.75

2009-09-25
997.00
991.50

2009-09-24
1014.00
1009.75

2009-09-23
1014.75
1010.25

2009-09-22
1015.75
1014.00

2009-09-21
999.25
997.00

2009-09-18
1014.00
1012.00

2009-09-17
1020.50
1018.50

2009-09-16
1017.00
1015.75

2009-09-15
997.50
996.00

2009-09-14
994.25
999.25

2009-09-11
998.25
1008.25

2009-09-10
988.50
990.75

2009-09-09
995.75
999.50

2009-09-08
1004.50
1000.75

2009-09-07
992.75
993.00

Wednesday, 7 October 2009

Alert: Martial Law in the UK 2009-10-07

Alert: Martial Law in the UK 2009-10-07
Wednesday 7th October 2009 at 10:50 am:

So the cat is finally out of the bag. We were due for martial law in the UK as the banking system collapsed in late 2008. See this Bloomberg story.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMfETcYI2t7Y

It reads almost identically to rumours from the meeting in US government circles in 2008, when some so-called 'alarmists' were stating that martial law had been discussed.

It's an interesting report, to say the least. I love it how the interviewees spin this situation as, "Oh yes there would have been pandemonium if the banks failed and if trust in the payment system broke down. People would have had to fend for themselves."

That's what people are supposed to do . Of course, statists (socialists and fascists) believe in total government, as did the nazi and communist regimes of the 20th Century. People acting independently of government is the worst thing they can imagine - they would be out of a job.

So we finally have it in print that the British state might have used the army against the people under the guise of public order and distributing food perhaps. Ha! Where is the army anyway? Aren't they all out of the country, fighting the British state's wars in Iraq and Afghanistan?

Gold has spiked up to $1045 yesterday on rumours (which like the martial law rumours may turn out to be facts) that American's creditor nations are considering using currencies other than the US dollar for oil trading). Rumour or not, mud will probably stick eventually. I think we are in trouble in the US and UK. :-(

Monday, 14 September 2009

Gold conspiracy, quantitative easing, OTC derivatives 2009-09-14

Gold conspiracy, quantitative easing, OTC derivatives 2009-09-14
Monday 14th September 2009 at 20:17 BST:


Some interesting links, money and gold conspiracies, OTC derivatives nightmares, dehedging in a hurry and China.

Blog here, interesting:
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/

Article on Barrick, not too sanguine about them:
http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1252609733.php

Jim Sinclair says OTC derivatives nuke is about to explode:
http://jsmineset.com/
saying,
"Can you blame China for simply saying no to Western crack cocaine finance?"

Hugo Salinas Price on bringing gold and silver back to the mint:
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1252786770.php

and a fascinating intervew by Eric King on his website of Bill Laggner regarding money printing, quantitative easing, government fraud and another cming financial storm. He sees the 2008 credit collapse turning into a currency collapse. He just said that he has gone from net short 225% to net short 60%. PHEW! That's not a recommendation by the way! He sees 15-25% decline in housing in prime mortgages, collateral values declining, Fed is impotent.

All worth a read. Or a listen, as in the last link.

_

Sunday, 13 September 2009

Last chance for gold under $1000? 2009-09-13

Last chance for gold under $1000? 2009-09-13
Sunday 13th September 2009 at 22:40 BST:

The market seems enthusiastic to push gold above $1000 but some analysts are now not so sure:

Bob Hoye on http://www.howestreet.com/ expects that gold and silver prices have had a good run but that it may come to an end with the gold:silver ratio going up again as silver and other commodities fall relative to gold in another deleveraging this autumn. He expects gold to outperform silver if we get another credit crunch and a fall in most markets. Bob is a witty and very wise market expert, very laid-back style, almost horizontal!
Discussion here: Autumn Anxiety *AUDIO*

In the goldseek radio Dr. Marc Faber & Chris Waltzek discussion, Marc Faber said that he thinks there is a bit too much enthusiasm for gold right now at $1000 to make this the big move in gold.
This is a page worth bookmarking, the Goldseek radio nuggets page with the main commentary by one individual expert: http://www.radio.goldseek.com/nuggets.php

David Morgan on http://www.financialsense.com/fsn/main.html newshour 12 September 2009 first section says he thinks that maybe this might not be the last ever chance to get gold under $1000 for similar reasons.

One of the main reasons for the scepticism is that the gold and silver COT (Commitment of Traders) are showing more or less record commercial short positions, usually the sign of an interim top. The above events may possibly influence the price to the upside, so is a commercial signal failure followed by a large upward spike in gold due to short covering (a short squeeze) possible? Hear Ted Butler on King World News and John Rubino on www.Howe Street.com.
Ted Butler September 12th: Ted Butler on the Metals Market
John Rubino on Howestreet: Gold Roundup *AUDIO*
Also on Goldseek: COT Gold, Silver and US Dollar Index Report - Septemer 11, 2009

However, Dave Skarica on Howestreet thinks that it's a A Bullish End To A Wild Week *AUDIO* and he thinks that gold has had its breakout with the gold stocks breaking out too (given the performance in the HUI Gold Bugs' Index). See his charts in an Acrobat Reader .pdf file next to the broadcast link. He can really talk! Very interesting. 'NG-AU-AG-HUI all had a strong week Click for Dave's charts.'
_