Gold breaks out from long term resistance levels - at last!

After giving very little to write about for several months, gold has made a most unusual move for the period around the start of summer.

The rarity of this move should not be lost on market watchers or participants because the period May to August is usually the time that the gold price wallows or even slumps into a lower trading range. However this is the time that the market has chosen to break out decisively from a 5+ year trading range.

Almost undoubtedly, the announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding the potential of interest rate cuts and at least the ceasing of interest rate rises for the time being have played into this, although a rally was already underway. Geopolitical factors such as the Iran/US conflict brewing in the Straits of Hormuz have also played a part.

The two charts below show the various resistance lines in play in gold priced in US dollars and GB Pounds Sterling.

Red line = resistance from 2016 bull market high at $1377

Green Line = Resistance from 2014 high external peak at $1392

Blue line =Resistance from 2013 rally after the crash at $1434

Black lines = resistance zone from the topping pattern in 2011-2012 above $1520:

In British Pounds, he chart is more perky.The resistance zone at £960-£1005 has already been cleared. In fact, all of the trading since the gold price jump on the Brexit vote on 23 June 2016 has been around that very zone. The peaks from the bear market region (where the price dipped as low as £693) have long been taken out and left behind as gold has been trading around £1000 for three years:

Taking a look at a 20 year chart, I have marked some times when decent up-moves have occurred in gold priced in US dollars.
The only times when decent rallies have occurred in the summer were 2000, a bounce in 2008, (2011, 2012 and 2013 rallies were later in summer), and 2016. There has been little positive early summer action in gold during the entire bull and bear market cycle since 1999. This illustrates the "outside the norm" nature of this current move: