Line in the sand for gold around $1230-1232 or maybe $1238-1240 (Charts).

For me, the line in the sand for this gold mini bull market (or bear market rally?) since December 2015 is around $1230-1232. If this is broken tot he downside, it looks like a much longer correction in the mini bull run. This pattern is 2.5 years old now, 30 months and so you might expect a good year's correction to go on if the uptrend is broken by a move below about $1230-1232.


Andrew's pitchfork giving $1232 as an allowable low but drawing these things can sometimes be not totally precise - and sometimes they are just a little off the trend channel that emerges, just a little, mind:

With a simple trend line, the situation is more tight, $1238 actually breaks the line by a tiny bit intraday:

Going between aily closes (thin red line below) gives the same result actually. $1238 was an intraday dip below the line. Now, where did it close?

The lowest close was around $1240, so gold has just got away with it so far. On the intraday (green line) or daily close level (blue line), the support from the lows last December has held - JUST!

It's hanging on by the skin of its teeth. really marginal here. Is someone looking for that classic pattern that has a false breakout whose name eludes me?

The evergreen http://www.kitco.com site has this for today:

"Bid/Ask 1242.10 / 1243.10

Low/High 1235.80 / 1246.90"

Oops. The intraday support at $1238 was broken to $1235.80. Price has recovered to $1242.10 as of now.

 

Maybe Friday's close is going to tell the story or lead up the garden path if someone paints the charts below the lines inthe sand. However, if they CAN paint the charts, what does that say about the strength of the market?