Progress of gold chart: not good but not awful (yet)!

Here is this evening's gold chart. Things do not look good but not yet completely awful. 

• The blue line as the base of the previous uptrend is now acting as resistance. 
• Gold is still within the recent downtrend channel. 
• The channel floor is at about $1182.
• The top of the channel is at $1219

Not inspiring, unless gold gets above the blue line. Really it needs to break out of the downtrend channel by going to about $1220 on the upside but there are now some obstacles in the way

Gary Wagner's line in the sand described in his spot on Kitco, delineating the downside limit to stay out of the previous long term downtrend (from Sept 2012) is here. Ignore my own steeper downtrend channel that marked the 2012-2013 action). His line was at $1198 but it will move down as time goes by. Gold is right at the green line now on the very long term chart:

The recent rally has now been retraced more than 62% and the price is also below the blue line: