Potential channel for new gold bull market?

I have drawn a potential trend channel for new gold bull market as shown on the upper, long term chart. It is very much with a question mark but in the last few days gold has rolled to the upside from its recent downtrend (from January to mid-February 2015) as shown on the lower chart.

Much too early to call - but maybe there is potential if the long term support blue line holds.


If this blue line does not hold then there will be trouble for gold bulls because it is a line set by the most important low in the 2001-2011 bull market, that of $680 in late 2008. The blue line is an important line in the sand but the sideways to down action of the last year or so slices down through that blue line about now. One perhaps not really expect it to hold unless some upside momentum comes into this market quickly.

To look decent, gold needs to close above about $1208-1210 tonight - it is pulling back right now and is at about $1213. I fancy a possible move down to $730 if it does not hold.