Thursday, 31 July 2008

H&S Breakdown for now? 2008-07-31.

Hi All,

Dan Norcini's chart a couple of days ago showed what looked like a classic Head & Shoulders with a price target of ... $844 on an intraday basis: top-neckline = $990-$917=$73, so the measured move is $917-$73=$844. Oops!

As I said, a chart just ripe to be 'painted' lower by those who wish to imply that the economy and inflation are under control by bashing the gold price.

Anyway, on his 4-hour chart today:
the right shoulder broke down suddenly, just as if there was an engineered technical breakdown by the short sellers. The price bounced back to the neckline as resistance and not much , if any, beyond it.

As I write we are Bid/Ask $918.50 - 919.10 on the spot market Kitco, right on the neckline. Actually the intraday spot price went to $929.40. The range was Low/High $911.70 - 929.40 and over the day's trading there was a gain of only about $2: Open/Last $917.90 - 919.50. See !

The right shoulder of the H&S has also now formed and broken down on the daily spot gold chart on the stockcharts gallery view:

Looks weak, doesn't it?

Moving out to the weekly chart in the stockcharts gallery view, it looks a bit like a cup and handle formation; that's more bullish. The Point & Figure chart, the uptrend is slipping a little bit, looks mediocre. "I'm OK, you're so-so," as Bowie sang.

Don't you just love technical analysis? James Dines said he called it 'Visual analysis' - in other words, I guess he doesn't think there is anything very technical about it, especially since all the moving averages are calculated for you these days and displayed almost instantaneously on a computer chart. So it is just reading tealeaves, isn't it?

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