Bearish curves on gold chart from last 2+ years

Looking at this weekend gold chart, I noticed that there are bearish curves on gold chart from last 2 years. Ol' Jim Sinclair used to say about 10 years ago that one should have a set of parallel rulers and some French curves to do charting.

Instead of drawing a falling wedge, one might instead encompass the last 2.5 years of price action between two steepening down curves.

Well, here are some curves on the gold chart that do not look too good.

In sketch form, if the recent high circled in red is the high for this current move, then there might be a lot more downside to come. This recent up cycle looks a lot like a stunted version of the previous up cycle from January 2015:

Looking from an even more bearish perspective, this last 2+ years of action mirrors the action in late 2012 to early 2013. We are again at the 4th high of a series of falling highs. Last time, the 4th high was the failure to hold above $1600. This one is the failure to get to $1200. Geronimo?

I am beginning to realize that you can draw almost anything on one of these charts but I do not like at all the downside acceleration of both the highs and the lows. It is ongoing as far as I can see. Who knows when it will end?

The 2012-2013 down move culminated oi the mid-April crash in gold on 12 and 15 April 2013. Immediately preceding the crash there was a failure to hold above $600 (high number 4 in purple/green on the chart) and just after that an abortive little bounce that went to about $1590, failing to reach $1600. That ushered in a $270 drop within a very short space of time.

This time around, we have the recent rally to $1190 (high number 4 in blue/red on the chart). The price failed to hold over $1180 which is key horizontal resistance dating back to the lows of June and December 2013. Very soon after we had a little bounce that failed to reach $1180. This might be an indication that gold is about to break down severely.

Here is a better chart with proper parabolas drawn for me by one of the lead contributors at http://www.goldtadise.com, which I would thoroughly recommend joining:

Last week's sharp selloff could be very bad news. Unless the price rallies to above $1180 or at least spends at least a number of weeks trading sideways, there is a chance of an imminent second crash in gold  based on this view.

However, the breakdown in April 2013 crashed through a level of support that had previously held 3 or 4 times in 2011-2013, i.e. $1520-1540. This time there is not a level of support to compare to this one. In this case, it might be postulated that the $1030 level (the highs from 2008) might be the key psychological level that may fall this time around.

To Rick’ Ackerman’s $817 target by the end of the year perhaps?

The width of the channel as measured when drawn as a falling wedge in previous posts was about $250 at the start and $170 recently. The $250 is about equal to the original April 2013 crash down move ($-270 from $1590 to $1320) so perhaps I could propose the secondary down move might be of the order of $170 from wherever the bottom of the channel is currently. It is not far above $1000 on the curved channel above and a little higher is you draw it as a straight falling wedge (maybe (1050?). It also depends on the time taken for the move. A down move to $1000-$170 or $830 is well within the realms of possibility.

Here are some great articles on Phase III of bear markets on goldtadise.com:

http://goldtadise.com/?p=342366, etc

• Plunger GT Webpage
• Bear Market Models
• Big Picture
• PM Annihilation

Here are a couple of charts from those articles (these do not belong to me but they do not show on the above articles at the moment for some reason.) Note the striking similarity between the down-move in the Dow in 1929-32 and gold in 2012-2015. Both bear markets had their middle stage within an inverted parabolic trading channel. In the case of the Dow in 1932, the final plunge was still within that trading channel but this still allowed for a huge drop to the final low. I suspect the same may happen with gold. At present, the channel bottom is at $1000 but I think that will probably match the action in the Dow at the start of 1932 - a sideways to up shallow bounce to follow plus a plunge to $800. I therefore think the recent $1191 high in gold was probably equivalent to the Dow high in Nov 1932 (or perhaps the one in March 1932 if one is to be a little more optimistic). 

Here are a couple of links:

http://rambus1.com/2015/10/31/late-friday-night-charts-28/
BOO!

http://traderdan.com/?p=7722
BOO times TWO!

There was an interesting show on Korelin Economics Report this weekend from the New Orleans Investment Conference:

http://www.kereport.com/2015/10/31/2015-orleans-investment-conference/

This post is mirrored on Golf TA Paradise at 

http://goldtadise.com/?p=355165
"Bearish curves on gold chart from last 2+ years"

with some good user comments underneath.

Gold breaks out of small falling wedge formation but larger one remains intact.

Gold breaks out of small (9 month) falling wedge formation but larger one 
(2-year+) remains intact:

$1240 would be needed to break out of the larger wedge even by a tiny bit; perhaps one should say $1250 would be needed to make any kind of convincing move out of the wedge to the upside.

Modified appropriated chart from Cory's blog post... 2015-10-05.

Here is a modified version of Cory's chart from his Korelin Economics Report blog post at:

http://www.kereport.com/2015/10/05/gold-verge-breakout-higher-etf-holdings-rise/

To me, the chart looks like bear flag city already. Nothing has changed:

Fantastic 'super moon' total lunar eclipse last night.

I enjoyed the fantastic 'super moon' total lunar eclipse last night. It was the best one I had ever seen. It was a very long drawn out affair, not as exciting as a total solar eclipse but to me much better than any partial solar eclipse, even a 99% one. I got to see it from the comfort of my own home too!

I had a bit of a photo-fest! Mostly manual exposures on a tripod with a long zoom lens. I also took some camcorder videos but they were a bit grainy.

Equipment:

Camera Canon EOS 1200D entry-level DSLR + 75-300 zoom lens.

Camcorder: Canon Legria HF R57 on program or low light settings but with manual exposure control and focus (mostly).

Velbon and Slik mini-tripods.

All photos (c) me 2015.

$1240+ might suffice as potential to end the gold bear trend.

I am thinking that maybe a move in gold to $1240+ might suffice as potential to end its bear trend at least for a cyclical bull market run:

Dow gaps down through its megaphone top line

The Dow has gapped down through its megaphone top line:

My target for the Dow would then be first to go to 5500 then to 1850. If Dow:Gold ratio goes to 1:1 again, which I don’t think it will for years, I think it will most likely be somewhere near the $1800-2000 level.

This perhaps shows the megaphone structure is in play and it has a target around 5500, about a 2/3 decline. On a log chart the bearish target of a breakdown of this megaphone would be another 2/3 decline below the lower blue line to around 1850.

THE NO-WIN FOR GOLDBUGS WOULD BE:
In terms of gold, I wouldn’t rule out a secular bear market until the 2030s. You could have gold at $1850 and Dow at 1850 with no new high for gold. That would be as bad as it could get for goldbugs – to have Dow:Gold at 1:1 and gold still in a bear market!

Mini crash in general stock markets over the past 5 days.

Here is a chart showing the last 5 days action in the conventional stock market: the S&P 500 as an example.
As I write, the SPX is down for the day 18 points Tuesday and is below Monday afternoon's secondary low but is still above the Monday morning crash low:

and the Dow. Note the gaps both in price and in time on Monday's intraday chart , if you select bar or candlestick charts. Were there some meaningful trading halts then?