Monday, 14 September 2015

Dow gaps down through its megaphone top line

The Dow has gapped down through its megaphone top line:

My target for the Dow would then be first to go to 5500 then to 1850. If Dow:Gold ratio goes to 1:1 again, which I don’t think it will for years, I think it will most likely be somewhere near the $1800-2000 level.
This perhaps shows the megaphone structure is in play and it has a target around 5500, about a 2/3 decline. On a log chart the bearish target of a breakdown of this megaphone would be another 2/3 decline below the lower blue line to around 1850.
In terms of gold, I wouldn’t rule out a secular bear market until the 2030s. You could have gold at $1850 and Dow at 1850 with no new high for gold. That would be as bad as it could get for goldbugs – to have Dow:Gold at 1:1 and gold still in a bear market!


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