The price of gold in Japanese Yen Gold has at long last hit an all time high in recent days - or has it? The strength of the Yen in recent decades has meant that it has been in the probably unique position where gold had not recorded a price in this bull market that exceeded the high reached in January 1980.
Some websites have said that the 155,000 Yen current price is a new all-time high. However, the Zero Hedge article by GoldCore (citing Bloomberg data) and an article on Bullion By Post state that the 21 January 1980 intraday high was actually ¥204,850. So, according to this, there is a fair way still to go.
The Kitco Yen gold chart shows that the Yen gold price is at new highs for the current bull market.
It is interesting that Ben Davies of Hinde Capital has recently re-stated his view on the Japanese entering the gold market in a major way. This is fascinating, because I am sure that he was well aware of the Yen gold price nearing its 1980 peak. It also coincides with the new policy of the Japanese government and central bank to indulge in realtively extreme Quantitative Easing and inflation targeting.
This is fascinating to watch these developments especially in light of the negative sentiment on the gold market in US dollar terms, in light of its lacklustre performance in the last 16 months.
Monday, 4 February 2013
John Nadler leaves Kitco; goldbugs happy! 2013-02-04
John Nadler has left Kitco after becoming the analyst that all goldbugs love to hate over the past few years for his relentlessly bearish commentries that were crystallised in his last piece that predicted gold declining for the next few years. It was posted on Kitco radio last week and, strangely, cannot now be found online!
Articles dealing with Nadler's departure:
http://www.mining.com/gloating-all-around-after-nadler-and-kitco-part-ways-12943//-
and
http://gata.org/node/12197
» Daily Dispatches
"Kitco cans analyst Nadler; gold rises $5.50"
and the original press release:
http://www.kitco.com/pr/1037/article_02012013174304.pdf
Articles dealing with Nadler's departure:
http://www.mining.com/gloating-all-around-after-nadler-and-kitco-part-ways-12943//-
and
http://gata.org/node/12197
» Daily Dispatches
"Kitco cans analyst Nadler; gold rises $5.50"
and the original press release:
http://www.kitco.com/pr/1037/article_02012013174304.pdf
Sunday, 27 January 2013
Ben Davies of Hinde Capital predicted QE in Japan and possible implications for gold. 2013-01-27
Ben Davies was the first person in the gold space to make
a case for the Japanese to enter gold market, in his 2010 article ‘The World Monetary
Earthquake - The Dash from Cash’ written in 2010. The ideas were discussed on
King World News podcasts published on 29 September 2010 and 4 October 2010. Ben’s
idea seemed radical and logical. I always enjoy listening to his interviews
because he seems to have a deep intuitive and analytical understanding of
markets.
Ben described the huge amount of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) that were owned by Japanese citizens and pension funds, perhaps amounting to up to $10 trillion. At the time, the gold price was around $1300, so this sum would have represented 253,000 tonnes of gold, more in fact than has ever been mined (which has been estimated at 140,000 – 160,000 tonnes). Only 10% of this sum put into gold would require 25,000 tonnes of gold at that price, which is about ¾ of all stated central bank reserves in the world. Obviously, a large upward gold price adjustment would be necessary to satisfy such huge demand if it came.
In fact, Ben Davies was two years ahead of his time because, as he discussed in later interviews on 8 December 2012 and 12 Jan 2013, the election of Mr Abe in Japan has given their government a mandate to pressure their Central Bank, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), to move forward with much more radical monetary easing (QE) than previously.
Japan has recently announced that the BoJ will be targeting inflation of +2%, far higher than they have had in most of the last 20 years! Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve has also adopted similar ideas with his targeting of unemployment, saying that he will be buying bonds out of the market in QE3/QE4 until unemployment falls below some arbitrary level (6.5%). Ben described these policies as “the last desperate acts of a socialist system.”
The interviews are rather brilliant I would say - and are well worth a listen in their entirety. The interview pages on KWN are here (just click on the mp3 link on each page to listen):
Saturday 12 January 2013
Happy listening!
Ben described the huge amount of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) that were owned by Japanese citizens and pension funds, perhaps amounting to up to $10 trillion. At the time, the gold price was around $1300, so this sum would have represented 253,000 tonnes of gold, more in fact than has ever been mined (which has been estimated at 140,000 – 160,000 tonnes). Only 10% of this sum put into gold would require 25,000 tonnes of gold at that price, which is about ¾ of all stated central bank reserves in the world. Obviously, a large upward gold price adjustment would be necessary to satisfy such huge demand if it came.
Ben’s piece made a case for Japan to have an outbreak of
inflation due to excessive monetary easing that was likely to come into place
as an aggressive step to solve Japan’s debt trap. The poor demographics in
Japan with ageing population who may be likely to sell some of their savings in
JGBs would necessitate the Bank of Japan to do more and more Quantitative
Easing (QE) to buy these bonds. If inflation took hold in Japan, a flight out
of these bonds is possible and could result in massive QE in Japan and the
potential flight into gold as a hedge asset to hedge against this. He
postulated that there was a likelihood of hyperinflation in Japan due to the
government debt level of 200+% of their GDP, the highest in the developed world
by far.
In fact, Ben Davies was two years ahead of his time because, as he discussed in later interviews on 8 December 2012 and 12 Jan 2013, the election of Mr Abe in Japan has given their government a mandate to pressure their Central Bank, the Bank of Japan (BoJ), to move forward with much more radical monetary easing (QE) than previously.
To quote Ben Davies, “Monetary policy has been annexed by
government” in the Japan and the UK (with the latter appointing Mark Carney as
the new Governor of the Bank of England, effectively on the say-so of Chancellor
George Osborne). The new policy would be presented as ‘nominal GDP targeting’
to boost employment, etc.
Japan has recently announced that the BoJ will be targeting inflation of +2%, far higher than they have had in most of the last 20 years! Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve has also adopted similar ideas with his targeting of unemployment, saying that he will be buying bonds out of the market in QE3/QE4 until unemployment falls below some arbitrary level (6.5%). Ben described these policies as “the last desperate acts of a socialist system.”
The upshot of this is that Japan and the UK could be on
the path to hyperinflation and the USA could also have surprisingly high
inflation quite soon.
The interviews are rather brilliant I would say - and are well worth a listen in their entirety. The interview pages on KWN are here (just click on the mp3 link on each page to listen):
Saturday 12 January 2013
Or look up his name on the KWN broadcast archive here,
which is a useful link:
Happy listening!
Monday, 16 July 2012
Two bullish charts? Try these for size! 2012-07-16
OK, so I am bearish today. Sometimes I think technical analysis as it is called could be a load of old crap.
Here are two charts that do not paint a pretty picture for the precious metals:
However, the signs look poor on the charts for a gold rally. There is an ominous potential head and shoulders pattern that has already broken down from the neckline and tested resistance and been repelled. The the inverse thrade, the US dollar is whoing a lovely cup shaped bottom pattern after achieveing a head and shoulders target last year of about 73. The new inverted head and shoulders pattern has broken out of the necking and back tested it and confirmed it.
Looks like the dollar could be going to 90 and gold to $1300 if these patterns are correct.
The backdrop is a weak Euro in constant ongoing semi-crisis mode.
Here are two charts that do not paint a pretty picture for the precious metals:
and
However, the signs look poor on the charts for a gold rally. There is an ominous potential head and shoulders pattern that has already broken down from the neckline and tested resistance and been repelled. The the inverse thrade, the US dollar is whoing a lovely cup shaped bottom pattern after achieveing a head and shoulders target last year of about 73. The new inverted head and shoulders pattern has broken out of the necking and back tested it and confirmed it.
Looks like the dollar could be going to 90 and gold to $1300 if these patterns are correct.
The backdrop is a weak Euro in constant ongoing semi-crisis mode.
Thursday, 12 April 2012
Silver near to breakout? Maybe. 2012-04-11
I can't make up my mind whether to be bullish or bearish on gold and sister silver. Nor can most investors in the space, it seems.
I originally called this blog '1000gold' because gold was coming to $800 in late 2007 and was about to make a new all time high - and I thought it will go over $1000. It did, in March 2008. Now the blog name has a new significance, because the gold price has been stuck at just over £1000 in Sterling since last August/September - indeed, for 8 months.
Taking a look at the weekly silver chart on stockcharts, it could look really bullish, even though silver is in the lower part of the trading range. The price is close to hugging the upper downsloping line of the traingle. The breakout point could be around $33-$34:
However, there have been many trading range moves and weakness in gold and silver whenever there is either bad or good economic news! So they are still in consolidation mode.
In 2010 when the Greek crisis erupted, gold and silver were in very bullish mode. gold rose over $1200 and then when Ben Nernanke at the Fed announced QE2 (Quantitative Easing version 2) money printing late in 2010, silver skyrocketed. There were big bullish moves through 2011 with the debt celing of the US government being raised and doubts about the validity of its finances. However, when gold and silver both became very overbought and subject to some wild speculation (silver in May 2011 and gold in September 2011) the prices broke down. Since then, all news seems to send them down. However, this is just mass psychology among investors to get to an oversold condition to start another rally, I feel.
Gold and silver have had nice upmoves today,, gold to $1675, up $20 and silver to $32.40, up 80 cents and they look promising, for the next five minutes anyway!
Its a wait and see game. I saw an article online a couple of years ago that had the phrase "Are we rich yet?" The answer is "No." There is a long time to wait. I wondwer if I will live to see the top in gold or even the big upmove. It is so slow coming. This slow bull market will wear me out. I will not get rich - whoever inherits my metals will maybe get rich instead!
I originally called this blog '1000gold' because gold was coming to $800 in late 2007 and was about to make a new all time high - and I thought it will go over $1000. It did, in March 2008. Now the blog name has a new significance, because the gold price has been stuck at just over £1000 in Sterling since last August/September - indeed, for 8 months.
Taking a look at the weekly silver chart on stockcharts, it could look really bullish, even though silver is in the lower part of the trading range. The price is close to hugging the upper downsloping line of the traingle. The breakout point could be around $33-$34:
However, there have been many trading range moves and weakness in gold and silver whenever there is either bad or good economic news! So they are still in consolidation mode.
In 2010 when the Greek crisis erupted, gold and silver were in very bullish mode. gold rose over $1200 and then when Ben Nernanke at the Fed announced QE2 (Quantitative Easing version 2) money printing late in 2010, silver skyrocketed. There were big bullish moves through 2011 with the debt celing of the US government being raised and doubts about the validity of its finances. However, when gold and silver both became very overbought and subject to some wild speculation (silver in May 2011 and gold in September 2011) the prices broke down. Since then, all news seems to send them down. However, this is just mass psychology among investors to get to an oversold condition to start another rally, I feel.
Gold and silver have had nice upmoves today,, gold to $1675, up $20 and silver to $32.40, up 80 cents and they look promising, for the next five minutes anyway!
Its a wait and see game. I saw an article online a couple of years ago that had the phrase "Are we rich yet?" The answer is "No." There is a long time to wait. I wondwer if I will live to see the top in gold or even the big upmove. It is so slow coming. This slow bull market will wear me out. I will not get rich - whoever inherits my metals will maybe get rich instead!
Tuesday, 6 March 2012
Gold breakout annihilated: target now 1610-1625 dollars for this correction? 2012-03-06 2 pm GMT
My downside target for gold for this correction is 1610-1625 dollars. I was drawing this over the weekend but it is already coming true today! Charts to follow below, later today.
Gold is likely either to fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (of its upmove from the low to the latest high) which is about £1625 or it might go further to retest the upper line of the pennant pattern that it has formed over the last few months. That would be around $1610.
I fancy that silver is retracing 50% of its recent upmove from the bottom at $26.50 (3rd chart).
Anyway, later today (Tuesday) the gold A-B-C corrective move is obvious on the chart but might just have completed in the 1670s. It still looks to me that it might have a way to run though. The C leg down is still much smaller than the A leg down. The intermediate B up wave was a bit pathetic, only about 38% of the size of the A wave down.
At the moment, 50% (half) of the entire upmove in gold has been wiped out. That is in fact a complete annihilation of the breakout move from 24th January as the chart shows, when there was a spectacular up day.
Bullish news would be that silver is still above its January 24th level and has a final target for the correction to be 50% of the upmove rather than the 61.8% or more for gold. This sort of strength in silver relative to gold might be unexpected if it is the strong dollar and credit problems with tightening credit spreads that are affecting the markets. One might have expected silver to underperform here but that is not the situation we are seeing at this time.
The silver chart has been looking quite a bit more 'perky' than gols as we can see above. Interesting that the big outperformance in silver came just before the crash. I think that has happened a few times before!
Despite all the rhetoric about manipulation, we can see that the gold and silver hiccup coincides with a decent sized rally in the dollar as the Europeans embraced their version of QE to infinity with a 700 billion injection last week, whereas Bernanke pretended to be hawkish in not annoucing QE3 in the USA:
Gold is likely either to fall to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (of its upmove from the low to the latest high) which is about £1625 or it might go further to retest the upper line of the pennant pattern that it has formed over the last few months. That would be around $1610.
I fancy that silver is retracing 50% of its recent upmove from the bottom at $26.50 (3rd chart).
Anyway, later today (Tuesday) the gold A-B-C corrective move is obvious on the chart but might just have completed in the 1670s. It still looks to me that it might have a way to run though. The C leg down is still much smaller than the A leg down. The intermediate B up wave was a bit pathetic, only about 38% of the size of the A wave down.
At the moment, 50% (half) of the entire upmove in gold has been wiped out. That is in fact a complete annihilation of the breakout move from 24th January as the chart shows, when there was a spectacular up day.
Bullish news would be that silver is still above its January 24th level and has a final target for the correction to be 50% of the upmove rather than the 61.8% or more for gold. This sort of strength in silver relative to gold might be unexpected if it is the strong dollar and credit problems with tightening credit spreads that are affecting the markets. One might have expected silver to underperform here but that is not the situation we are seeing at this time.
Despite all the rhetoric about manipulation, we can see that the gold and silver hiccup coincides with a decent sized rally in the dollar as the Europeans embraced their version of QE to infinity with a 700 billion injection last week, whereas Bernanke pretended to be hawkish in not annoucing QE3 in the USA:
Monday, 30 January 2012
New gold and silver charts ... breakouts? Maybe. 2012-01-30
The charts are showing some kind of breakouts for gold and silver, at least a short term breakout in silver. Gold looks better.
Gold has a fairly clear breakout from the triangle pattern:
Silver does not:
So, there has been a great deal of improvement since 1 January 2012 but silver is not completely out of the woods yet, don't you think?
Gold has a fairly clear breakout from the triangle pattern:
Silver does not:
but the daily chart has a breakout from the shorter term downtrend in force since last September:
So, there has been a great deal of improvement since 1 January 2012 but silver is not completely out of the woods yet, don't you think?
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