Thursday, 12 April 2012

Silver near to breakout? Maybe. 2012-04-11

I can't make up my mind whether to be bullish or bearish on gold and sister silver. Nor can most investors in the space, it seems.

I originally called this blog '1000gold' because gold was coming to $800 in late 2007 and was about to make a new all time high - and I thought it will go over $1000. It did, in March 2008. Now the blog name has a new significance, because the gold price has been stuck at just over £1000 in Sterling since last August/September - indeed, for 8 months.

Taking a look at the weekly silver chart on stockcharts, it could look really bullish, even though silver is in the lower part of the trading range. The price is close to hugging the upper downsloping line of the traingle. The breakout point could be around $33-$34:

However, there have been many trading range moves and weakness in gold and silver whenever there is either bad or good economic news! So they are still in consolidation mode.

In 2010 when the Greek crisis erupted, gold and silver were in very bullish mode. gold rose over $1200 and then when Ben Nernanke at the Fed announced QE2 (Quantitative Easing version 2) money printing late in 2010, silver skyrocketed. There were big bullish moves through 2011 with the debt celing of the US government being raised and doubts about the validity of its finances. However, when gold and silver both became very overbought and subject to some wild speculation (silver in May 2011 and gold in September 2011) the prices broke down. Since then, all news seems to send them down. However, this is just mass psychology among investors to get to an oversold condition to start another rally, I feel.

Gold and silver have had nice upmoves today,, gold to $1675, up $20 and silver to $32.40, up 80 cents and they look promising, for the next five minutes anyway!

Its a wait and see game. I saw an article online a couple of years ago that had the phrase "Are we rich yet?" The answer is "No." There is a long time to wait. I wondwer if I will live to see the top in gold or even the big upmove. It is so slow coming. This slow bull market will wear me out. I will not get rich - whoever inherits my metals will maybe get rich instead!

No comments: