Well it’s 11:04 GMT London time on 2011-02-25 Friday. It’s been an interesting week of contradictory silver and gold action. They made a high Monday night and silver took a $2 fall. Tuesday, silver made an almost perfect bullish pennant pattern and there was no breakout. The price line just ran out of the apex of the pennant after hugging the upper line looking ready to break out. Gold meanwhile was on the lower line of its pennant. Both climbed on Wednesday but silver without any conviction. Gold went to a higher high, silver drifted about.
The silver pennant seemed to have been morphing into a possible ABC correction with the C-leg to come but gold was still making higher highs.
Gold was stronger than silver, maybe on Libya news and the crude oil spike to over $100 in the WTIC contract.
Then Thursday night/Friday morning came the C-wave down, a magnificent clearout perhaps.
After this, silver is now slightly stronger than gold. My suspicion is that we might get the completion of a C-wave down in gold to one lower low and a higher low in silver to confirm the C-wave bottom. I am going to see if I am correct. In 2 hours time it ay be clear.
All kinds of Elliott Wave patterns were possible during this correction of 3 day duration and it was impossible to call but perhaps it has been resolved now…
However, maybe not! Taking another look at 11:22 GMT I wonder if gold has actually had its ABC correction in the move last night from the highs of yesterday morning. If so, then gold and silver are already in phase. I rather fancy a good move up but could be completely wrong.
It will be fascinating to see what happens when the COMEX opens.
Wow, as a novice trader I can see how much you need to study the markets to succeed. Maybe I should go back to coin collecting!
Footnote, Friday night. Silver has had a slow and choppy upmove, a snall one, with the classic Jim Sinclair "Swiss Stairs" formaiton late on Friday. Could this be the start of a new rally. Wait and see...
I thoroughly recommend listening to Ross Clark's technical analysis of gold and silver on www.howestreet.com here:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/02/metals-tracking-historical/#comment-64
with his charts too:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/files/2011/02/HoweStreet-Gold-Silver-022111_rossclark.pdf
and also his other interviews and charts this year, all lined from:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/author/rossclark/
Listening to all three over this weekend might prepare you for next week, if he is correct in his analysis.
Absolutely excellent! Ross is technical analyst to Bob Hoye who also gives fascinating insights every week in his interviews on the same website.
Friday, 25 February 2011
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Correction and bullish flag in silver all in one day? 2011-02-22
Fabulous correction in silver today! A $2 correction and what might be a bullish flag or triangle with apex at $33. As I write at 2:00, the apex os the triange is 3.5 hours away according to my chart (that would be 23:30 GMT london time). Will we get a breakout or what? It could have done enother leg down earlier to do a Fibonacci 38.2% or 50% correction of the breakout from the Christmas high of $31, but it didn't. Instead we got a flag pattern. Wouldn't it be amazing if this entire correction and flag formation happens in only a single day?
I sent the above message to Aland Roger at http://www.kereport.com/
at:
http://www.kereport.com/2011/02/22/trader-rog-markets-incorporates-situational-alert
I just looked at my charts again. The silver price is right on the upper line near the apex of the flag triangle pattern.
The apex prices at the midlines of the triangles/flags for silver and gold would be $33.005 and $1402 respectively.
Can't wait!
As I close off this message, silver is off a couple of cents. It is actually sliding right down the upper trendline of the flag! "Sliding down the razorblade of life," as Tom Lehrer said in one of his infamous satirical songs.
I sent the above message to Aland Roger at http://www.kereport.com/
at:
http://www.kereport.com/2011/02/22/trader-rog-markets-incorporates-situational-alert
I just looked at my charts again. The silver price is right on the upper line near the apex of the flag triangle pattern.
The apex prices at the midlines of the triangles/flags for silver and gold would be $33.005 and $1402 respectively.
Can't wait!
As I close off this message, silver is off a couple of cents. It is actually sliding right down the upper trendline of the flag! "Sliding down the razorblade of life," as Tom Lehrer said in one of his infamous satirical songs.
Sunday, 20 February 2011
Just a personal opinion. My call on silver. 2011-02-21 2:54 am GMT
I think silver is going to make a Three White Soldiers candlestick pattern and go into a power uptrend on this breaout from $31. So I thought that this Monday 21/2/2011 will be the third white doldier and will breakout form the trend channel that has formed on the rally that took the price back to $31 after the correction from $31 to $26.
I have reasons for this and will try to post some charts later if anyone is interested!
My call on silver is that it will go to $50 by the end of May, in fact probably sooner. The current rally from $6 to 31 has been at a rate of 18.9 cents per day, just short of the 20c needed to get the price to $50 in about 100 days that remain until the end of May.
The start of the rally from $20 to $30 (in fact the entire rally) was an uptrend that had a rate of 10 cents per day. It took about 120 days from 24th August 2010 until thenend of 2010 to get the price from about $18 to $31. After the correction to $26.40, the recovery rally has been in a tight trend channel (like the start of the $20-$30 rally) but steeper than the first rally. Now we may be seeing the start of a power uptrend as Jim Sinclair call it, and what better time to start a power uptrend than on the breakout from the previous 30-year high of $31?
Do your own due diligence! No advice is meant or implied by this blog. I have a long position in physical silver and am excited about it right now.
I have reasons for this and will try to post some charts later if anyone is interested!
My call on silver is that it will go to $50 by the end of May, in fact probably sooner. The current rally from $6 to 31 has been at a rate of 18.9 cents per day, just short of the 20c needed to get the price to $50 in about 100 days that remain until the end of May.
The start of the rally from $20 to $30 (in fact the entire rally) was an uptrend that had a rate of 10 cents per day. It took about 120 days from 24th August 2010 until thenend of 2010 to get the price from about $18 to $31. After the correction to $26.40, the recovery rally has been in a tight trend channel (like the start of the $20-$30 rally) but steeper than the first rally. Now we may be seeing the start of a power uptrend as Jim Sinclair call it, and what better time to start a power uptrend than on the breakout from the previous 30-year high of $31?
Do your own due diligence! No advice is meant or implied by this blog. I have a long position in physical silver and am excited about it right now.
Wednesday, 9 February 2011
Tullow Oil Interesting New Breakout and Chart: 2011-02-09
Tullow Oil has recently broken out of its funk of the year 2010 when it went nowhere.
It recently broke out to 1400p in the last couple of weeks. This is interesting because this is a breakout above a previous high of a year ago at about 1360p and a possible breakout from what looks like an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern lasting a year. These charts are bring placed here to test whether this kind of technical / visual analysis works. The price target from the new chart is 1645p.
New chart 2011-02-09 for Tullow Oil (TLW.L on the London Stock Exchange):
My previous charts make an interesting comparison because I had a target of 1620 as far back as 2009 with interim targets of 1220 and 1280 that were both reached and exceeded before the price retreated into a trading range until now. Here is the first H+S from 2008-2009:
Once the 1280 target was exceeded, the chart looked toppy:
and went into a trading range for a year, forming the new potential H+S pattern as it went.
This longer term chart combines the others and shows the positions of the two inverted H+S patterns:
I sold some Tullow shares at a profit while they were in the trading range but retained half of my position (which was bought by my father at about 624p). It will be interesting to see if the 1620/1645 targets are achieved in the near future. It is strange because this apparent breakout is happening despite the bad news coming out of some North African countries, or perhaps because of it - or perhaps the Egypt political siruation has had no effect and it is all about Tullow itself!
If this 1600+ target is reached soon, then it will be a valuable lesson to me to have some belief in my chart analysis to have have more patience, to wait for targets to be achieved or at least to continue to watch assets of interest that I have charted before.
This posting is merely a market observation and is not in any way to be construed as financial advice and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument at any time.
It recently broke out to 1400p in the last couple of weeks. This is interesting because this is a breakout above a previous high of a year ago at about 1360p and a possible breakout from what looks like an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern lasting a year. These charts are bring placed here to test whether this kind of technical / visual analysis works. The price target from the new chart is 1645p.
New chart 2011-02-09 for Tullow Oil (TLW.L on the London Stock Exchange):
My previous charts make an interesting comparison because I had a target of 1620 as far back as 2009 with interim targets of 1220 and 1280 that were both reached and exceeded before the price retreated into a trading range until now. Here is the first H+S from 2008-2009:
Once the 1280 target was exceeded, the chart looked toppy:
and went into a trading range for a year, forming the new potential H+S pattern as it went.
This longer term chart combines the others and shows the positions of the two inverted H+S patterns:
I sold some Tullow shares at a profit while they were in the trading range but retained half of my position (which was bought by my father at about 624p). It will be interesting to see if the 1620/1645 targets are achieved in the near future. It is strange because this apparent breakout is happening despite the bad news coming out of some North African countries, or perhaps because of it - or perhaps the Egypt political siruation has had no effect and it is all about Tullow itself!
If this 1600+ target is reached soon, then it will be a valuable lesson to me to have some belief in my chart analysis to have have more patience, to wait for targets to be achieved or at least to continue to watch assets of interest that I have charted before.
This posting is merely a market observation and is not in any way to be construed as financial advice and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument at any time.
Monday, 17 January 2011
Possible Head & Shoulders top in gold ... and the Euro? - 2011-01-17
OK, here are a couple of charts, firstly of a piddly Head and Shoulders top in gold that is being made a meal of by some analysts and also of a bigger H+S top in the Euro, which has a potential target similar to Roger Wiegand's commentary on:
http://www.kereport.com/2011/01/14/media-news-gold/
entitled Media, the News and Gold.
Gold has a tiny H+S top at the moment; the target may be around $1283, perhaps? That would still be above the June high of 1265, so not even a test of the breakout point. This H+S is piddly. It's only a 1 month or 5 week formation and a $1283 target would probably take the price about to the 200 day moving average. The price isn't that far from the rising 200 dma already and the 50 dma is still rising (just)::
Although the daily gold chart looks a bit like a rollover in price, you can hardly see it on the weekly chart. In fact, a 1283 target would take you about to the 40 week moving average on this weekly chart:
The weekly Euro chart on stockcharts looks a lot like a Head and Shoulders top with a target of about 1.171. A slightly upward sloping H&S topping pattern but target is close to what Roger Weigand mentioned at $1.185. This is a 6-7 month formation since June last year. The target would be a lower low confirming the 2+ year downtrend in the €:$ exchange rate. Actually, the right shoulder would only just be forming from the last large white up candlestick following the large red down candlestick:
http://www.kereport.com/2011/01/14/media-news-gold/
entitled Media, the News and Gold.
Gold has a tiny H+S top at the moment; the target may be around $1283, perhaps? That would still be above the June high of 1265, so not even a test of the breakout point. This H+S is piddly. It's only a 1 month or 5 week formation and a $1283 target would probably take the price about to the 200 day moving average. The price isn't that far from the rising 200 dma already and the 50 dma is still rising (just)::
The weekly Euro chart on stockcharts looks a lot like a Head and Shoulders top with a target of about 1.171. A slightly upward sloping H&S topping pattern but target is close to what Roger Weigand mentioned at $1.185. This is a 6-7 month formation since June last year. The target would be a lower low confirming the 2+ year downtrend in the €:$ exchange rate. Actually, the right shoulder would only just be forming from the last large white up candlestick following the large red down candlestick:
This H+S looks a bit different on the daily chart. Again, it seems that the right shoulder is only just forming, so the pattern is not complete. Drawing the neckine a bit higher, that neckline is at about 1.30, a important level in the Euro from years ago (around 2004 when the Euro was $1.30 and gold was in the $400s) and that pattern has already been aborted so it seems. However, there is quote a pronounced head and shoulders look to the whole formation and James Dines calls this 'visual analysis' rather than technical analysis after all:
Blowing a silver trumpet - review of silver 2010 - 2011-01-16
Well, I am quite proud of my silver $30 target as suggested in
Inverted Head & Shoulders in silver: Target $30? 2010-10-17 .
The chart was this one:
Now for a look at today's chart (daily ticks) coutesy http://www.stockcharts.com/ .
What happens next?
"I have absolutely no idea!" as Doc Morrisey used to say in the wonderful 1970s comedy series 'The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin'.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWpVJU1K2-c
Inverted Head & Shoulders in silver: Target $30? 2010-10-17 .
The chart was this one:
Now for a look at today's chart (daily ticks) coutesy http://www.stockcharts.com/ .
What happens next?
"I have absolutely no idea!" as Doc Morrisey used to say in the wonderful 1970s comedy series 'The Fall and Rise of Reginald Perrin'.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWpVJU1K2-c
Tuesday, 4 January 2011
Carlos Slim richest man and silver / Fresnillo rumour re-hashed, again! 2010-01-04
Wow, talk about old news! I was a bit disappointed when I read about this on the King World News (KWN) blog and then did a google search to see if it was new stuff.
A quick google search shows that this Slim/Fresnillo thing looks like an old chestnut going back to May 2010 ... or even August 2007!
Silver bugs will have to do better than that! It sounds like desperate hype.
Pity. I was thinking about buying some Fresnillo, though I think it might be getting late given the doubling in the last few months. All that upside missed!
Now I am having second thoughts and undecided, feeling a little suspicious of hype, hype, hype.
I have been fascinated by King World News since it started around May 2009 and I think I have listened to every single interview by Eric King on his website. He does get very enthusiastic on gold and silver but I think he overdid it a bit on this one. He has had some brilliant interviews on there over the last year and a half: Michael Berry, Felix Zulauf and, this week for the first time, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, as well as resource industry stars such as Rob McEwen, Pierre Lassonde and Sean Boyd and great commentators such as Rob Arnott, Chris Whalen, Bill Fleckenstein, etc., etc., "the top people in the world" as Eric audaciously announces in his outro. That always makes me smile. He gets some truly excellent scoops but this one might be a bit of a scoop of something else.
Latest hype:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/3_Is_the_Worlds_Richest_Man_Getting_Into_Silver.html
,
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/4_KWN_-_Worlds_Richest_Man_Entering_Silver_Gaining_Momentum.html
,
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/worlds-richest-man-carlos-slim-entering-silver-fray
Not exactly a scoop when the UK Daily Mail newspaper reported it 8 months ago! A few seconds of research was sufficient to find this!
Carlos Slim to dig deep for Fresnillo
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1273418/Carlos-Slim-dig-deep-Fresnillo.html#ixzz1A6YZeoDO
Mail Online 5 May 2010 ... Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim, the world's richest individual, ... busy running the slide rule over Fresnillo, the world's largest silver producer.
By Geoff Foster
Last updated at 10:36 PM on 5th May 2010
"Rumours that a cash bid in the region of £8.6bn or £12 a share could soon be tabled helped the shares jump 43.5p to 807p."
Or try this old rumour from 2007:
Why the silver price is set to soar Aug 09, 2007
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/why-the-silver-price-is-set-to-soar.aspx
"If only a tiny fraction of these millionaires, ultra-HNWIs and billionaires decided to diversify out of their extensive property and stock portfolios and invest even a very small amount of their portfolios in silver it would result in the silver price increasing in price exponentially."
... Blah blah blah, Meaningless drivel.
Rumours, rumours. Now the Fresnillo share price is 1682p according to Yahoo Finance UK on 4 Jan 2011. (Update: since this article, the shares have dropped to 1,339 as of 21 January 2011 at 13:38 approximately. According to Yahoo, the 52 week high was 1768.)
Would not Mr. Slim have done better to deploy his billions in 2008 with silver at $9 or even in 2010 with Fresnillo at 8 quid instead of now at 16 quid in January 2011?!
Do your own due diligence! I'm sure Carlos Slim has. He didn't become a billionaire by following loose talk on blogs, even on the FT, which ought to know better.
I am rather disaapointed in King World News for pushing this one. The FT blog participation is a bit shocking but it shows that the FT blog appears to be merely a rumour mill with no credibility. I also note that none of those who replied to the zerohedge post had even bothered to do the 25 seconds of due diligence necessary to see that the story is up to 3 years of age!
Sometimes, I wonder why the always interesting Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors who is a regular on http://www.howestreet.com/ makes so much fun of silver bugs. I think I may be beginning to realise the reason!
A quick google search shows that this Slim/Fresnillo thing looks like an old chestnut going back to May 2010 ... or even August 2007!
Silver bugs will have to do better than that! It sounds like desperate hype.
Pity. I was thinking about buying some Fresnillo, though I think it might be getting late given the doubling in the last few months. All that upside missed!
Now I am having second thoughts and undecided, feeling a little suspicious of hype, hype, hype.
I have been fascinated by King World News since it started around May 2009 and I think I have listened to every single interview by Eric King on his website. He does get very enthusiastic on gold and silver but I think he overdid it a bit on this one. He has had some brilliant interviews on there over the last year and a half: Michael Berry, Felix Zulauf and, this week for the first time, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, as well as resource industry stars such as Rob McEwen, Pierre Lassonde and Sean Boyd and great commentators such as Rob Arnott, Chris Whalen, Bill Fleckenstein, etc., etc., "the top people in the world" as Eric audaciously announces in his outro. That always makes me smile. He gets some truly excellent scoops but this one might be a bit of a scoop of something else.
Latest hype:
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/3_Is_the_Worlds_Richest_Man_Getting_Into_Silver.html
,
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/1/4_KWN_-_Worlds_Richest_Man_Entering_Silver_Gaining_Momentum.html
,
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/worlds-richest-man-carlos-slim-entering-silver-fray
Not exactly a scoop when the UK Daily Mail newspaper reported it 8 months ago! A few seconds of research was sufficient to find this!
Carlos Slim to dig deep for Fresnillo
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/article-1273418/Carlos-Slim-dig-deep-Fresnillo.html#ixzz1A6YZeoDO
Mail Online 5 May 2010 ... Mexican tycoon Carlos Slim, the world's richest individual, ... busy running the slide rule over Fresnillo, the world's largest silver producer.
By Geoff Foster
Last updated at 10:36 PM on 5th May 2010
"Rumours that a cash bid in the region of £8.6bn or £12 a share could soon be tabled helped the shares jump 43.5p to 807p."
Or try this old rumour from 2007:
Why the silver price is set to soar Aug 09, 2007
http://www.moneyweek.com/investments/precious-metals-and-gems/why-the-silver-price-is-set-to-soar.aspx
"If only a tiny fraction of these millionaires, ultra-HNWIs and billionaires decided to diversify out of their extensive property and stock portfolios and invest even a very small amount of their portfolios in silver it would result in the silver price increasing in price exponentially."
... Blah blah blah, Meaningless drivel.
Rumours, rumours. Now the Fresnillo share price is 1682p according to Yahoo Finance UK on 4 Jan 2011. (Update: since this article, the shares have dropped to 1,339 as of 21 January 2011 at 13:38 approximately. According to Yahoo, the 52 week high was 1768.)
Would not Mr. Slim have done better to deploy his billions in 2008 with silver at $9 or even in 2010 with Fresnillo at 8 quid instead of now at 16 quid in January 2011?!
Do your own due diligence! I'm sure Carlos Slim has. He didn't become a billionaire by following loose talk on blogs, even on the FT, which ought to know better.
I am rather disaapointed in King World News for pushing this one. The FT blog participation is a bit shocking but it shows that the FT blog appears to be merely a rumour mill with no credibility. I also note that none of those who replied to the zerohedge post had even bothered to do the 25 seconds of due diligence necessary to see that the story is up to 3 years of age!
Sometimes, I wonder why the always interesting Bob Hoye of Institutional Advisors who is a regular on http://www.howestreet.com/ makes so much fun of silver bugs. I think I may be beginning to realise the reason!
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