Monday, 17 January 2011

Possible Head & Shoulders top in gold ... and the Euro? - 2011-01-17

OK, here are a couple of charts, firstly of a piddly Head and Shoulders top in gold that is being made a meal of by some analysts and also of a bigger H+S top in the Euro, which has a potential target similar to Roger Wiegand's commentary on:
entitled Media, the News and Gold.

Gold has a tiny H+S top at the moment; the target may be around $1283, perhaps? That would still be above the June high of 1265, so not even a test of the breakout point. This H+S is piddly. It's only a 1 month or 5 week formation and a $1283 target would probably take the price about to the 200 day moving average. The price isn't that far from the rising 200 dma already and the 50 dma is still rising (just)::

Although the daily gold chart looks a bit like a rollover in price, you can hardly see it on the weekly chart. In fact, a 1283 target would take you about to the 40 week moving average on this weekly chart:

The weekly Euro chart on stockcharts looks a lot like a Head and Shoulders top with a target of about 1.171. A slightly upward sloping H&S topping pattern but target is close to what Roger Weigand mentioned at $1.185. This is a 6-7 month formation since June last year. The target would be a lower low confirming the 2+ year downtrend in the €:$ exchange rate. Actually, the right shoulder would only just be forming from the last large white up candlestick following the large red down candlestick:

This H+S looks a bit different on the daily chart. Again, it seems that the right shoulder is only just forming, so the pattern is not complete. Drawing the neckine a bit higher, that neckline is at about 1.30, a important level in the Euro from years ago (around 2004 when the Euro was $1.30 and gold was in the $400s) and that pattern has already been aborted so it seems. However, there is quote a pronounced head and shoulders look to the whole formation and James Dines calls this 'visual analysis' rather than technical analysis after all:

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