No adjustment to models and April CPI inflation announcement on 12 May 2017 comes in at 2.2%, very close to my forecasts made more than a month ago:
The models I have followed most closely are geometric gasoline and geometric oil with 2 month moving average data being used for the latter. These models forecast 2.28% and 2.33% for April CPI, even without any adjustment in the models to take into account March's figures.
So what we appear to have is slowly falling inflation because of the slowing in year over year increases min oil and therefore gasoline prices. Sub 2% inflation probably beckons (according to the BLS figures anyway) for later in the year, as shown in the above link.
© D Bellamy 2017
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