Friday, 14 April 2017

CPI inflation forecasts for March and April 2017

Here are my inflation model forecasts for March and April USA CPI:
The weakest model is Oil9. The others are quite consistent, using current oil and gasoline price action combined with EIA forecasts for oil and gasoline:

Month Oil8 OIl9 Oil10 Gasol11 Gasol12 CPI BLS actual
Feb'17 2.80 2.75 2.76 2.78 2.81 2.7
Mar'17 2.62 2.29 2.90 2.46 2.51 TBA
Apr'17 2.28 2.12 2.40 2.33 2.38 TBA

March CPI is to be announced any minute now.

US CPI Inflation forecasts for Mar and April 2017. Recorded 13 Apr 2017. These geometric and polynomial forecasts give lower inflation figures than purely linear (striaght line formula forecasts and match Feb's inflaiton well (2.7-2.8% against actual published 2.7%). They indicate figures of 2.5-2.9% for March and 2.3-2.4% for April, except for one outlier.
Linear forecasts for Feb and Mar were around 3.1-3.2 and 3.3-3.5 approx). I have modeified the models therefore to geometric models especially in the light of the bureau of Labor Statistics' US  Consumer Price Index inflation figures using geometric weightings for almost all of its components.

Video here explaining models with charts:


© D Bellamy 2017

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