The estimate for Feb 2017 turned out to be a little high at 3.06% versus the 2.7% quoted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I still feel that the energy price change which is fuelled by a +100% move in oil year over year from the Feb 2016 low to the Feb 2017 high has not been fully factored in (the oil price change is +75% of you use monthly average prices). I am now developing a new gasoline based model that looks promising as an alternative to the oil price based model.
The two videos are here:
Inflation Forecasting and Energy Prices Introduction to Concepts
CPI inflation forecast models for USA February and March 2017.