Saturday, 18 March 2017

Videos on inflation modelling February-March 2017.

I have made two YouTube videos, one on the relationship between energy prices, oil prices and inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published in the USA and a second one that made forecasts for Feb 2017 and Mar 2017 CPI inflation figures using oil price data alone.

The estimate for Feb 2017 turned out to be a little high at 3.06% versus the 2.7% quoted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I still feel that the energy price change which is fuelled by a +100% move in oil year over year from the Feb 2016 low to the Feb 2017 high has not been fully factored in (the oil price change is +75% of you use monthly average prices). I am now developing a new gasoline based model that looks promising as an alternative to the oil price based model.

The two videos are here:

Inflation Forecasting and Energy Prices Introduction to Concepts


CPI inflation forecast models for USA February and March 2017.

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