Thursday, 5 January 2017

Gold pitchfork worked a treat, $1120s target at lower line almost reached.

I have been waiting to see if the downtrend in gold would go all the way to the bottom of the pitchfork that I originally drew in January 2016 - and it did. Will it hold?

Actually, I have been looking at two forks. Both seem to sum up aspects of the trading. Earlier (Nov 2016) I had this chart with initial target of $1177 and final possible target of $120 at the bottom of the larger fork:
Note that the confluence of the two median lines marked the moment of the crash, right non US election day + 1.

As of 5 January 2017, the lower line near $1124 has not been fully tested though there may be two tests of a slightly higher parallel line just visible at lower right:

Putting the small pitchfork back in we can see the price at $1181 is still well below the lower line of that fork and needs about $1220 to re-enter it. In fact, it would be possible that an outside parallel to that small fork coule also be in play near $1124, about the same distance below the lower line as half the width of the small fork:

So, the bull run isn't fully dead yet. $1180 is a key resistance level (that was support in June and December 2013) and needs to be exceeded on a closing basis. Any move below $1124 would kill this bull rally pretty much, I feel since it would break an uptrend structure (the large fork) that has been in formation since the left hand end of this chart at the end of 2014 (2 years).

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