Wednesday, 15 June 2016

Gold's bull market pitchfork there all along.

Gold has been tracing out a bull market pitchfork structure that began in early 2011 at the $1309 low. Strange that $1309 was the level at which the price was rejected from re-entering that very same structure early in 2015 and stranger that so many are looking at $1309 yet again under the name of the "Matterhorn" - the goal to reach in the first leg of a potential new bull market.

Sure, $1309 is a crucial horizontal resistance/support level going back to early 2011 at least. However, my chart tells me that $1400 is going to be the  key. A move over $1400 is now needed to get gold back into this bullish pitchfork structure. Since it is an up-sloping channel, as time goes on, this target creeps gradually higher and will soon get to $1430 another key level of resistance in late 2010 and Summer 2013 - green line on second chart.

Strangely, or not so strangely, the recent bullish action in gold has followed a half width parallel pitchfork (show in orange) parallel to and just underneath the larger structure. Possibly that is encouraging, since it means that the slope of the larger structure is still in force or has re-asserted itself as a determinant of price action.

The median line of this structure is at $1750 so a move above $1400 or so back into the blue pitchfork would suggest a potential quick move to $1750:

The action-reaction lines and the symmetry of the trading pattern would suggest a quick move to $1400 after a hesitation near $1300 and then a pullback before another quick move to $1750. The final target would be $2100 at the top of the fork but let's not get ahead of ourselves:

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