Saturday, 23 April 2016

Is the silver up-move overdone?

Is the silver up-move overdone? Bob Hoye on says "Yes" in his past two interviews:
Gold, Silver and Metals Rally Continuing
Precious Metals Show End of Bear Market

Bob is looking for a cyclical bull market in precious metals but is warning that the silver rally is very overbought. One of his favourite indicators ins the daily RSI (relative strength index) on the silver:gold ratio. If it goes above 78, he considers it a warning sign.

The RSI on silver:gold ratio has just gone over 80 and that is usually a sign of a very overextended move in the precious metals. Even higher levels on this RSI at over 90 have been seen at the secular precious metals market top in January 1980 ($850 gold, $50 silver) and at the silver market top of $50 in May 2011. The rebound in the market in September 2012 saw this RSI hit 84 and it is reaching that level again.

Bob is a senior in the marketplace and, though he is something of a deflationist and was wrongly bearish on the stock markets in 2009-2011 he is a real bright guy and evergreen in his analysis, which is usually spot on. You canm see interestingly that the three past spikes in this RSI were in the precious metals rallies in the third quarters of 2012, 2013 and 2014.

However, on these charts, it doesn't look quite as extreme as Bob Hoye implies in his interview. The RSI has spent only a little time over 70, less than on some other occasions and not all the visits well over the 70 level were disasters for price action; it's just that some were highly disastrous! SO it is a warning sign I guess.

Anyway, what about weekly and monthly RSI's? Are those not also important?

Daily RSI charts are shown below:

No comments: