Wednesday, 22 July 2015

Considering position of gold now - hanging on to 1000 EUR, 700 GBP or $US 1100 by a thread?

Considering the position of gold now - hanging on to 1000 EUR, 700 GBP or $US 1100 by a thread?

Today is a moment of truth in the gold market, whether the slowly downtrending trading channel of the last 18 months can hold (currently the range is about $1100-1300) or whether gold is going to break down into a new lower range from $900-1100. $1080 is a good point for a bounce as described in the previous post so there had 'better be one' - or else!

Gold has been trashed in terms of US dollars, Pounds Sterling, Swiss Francs and even the troubled Euro and Yen.

Looking at charts from this previous article, where does this market stand for the longer term? On the edge of a cliff possibly or perhaps near the lows:

The three scenarios are still possible, extended secular bear market (red), new upleg to new highs (blue) and middling scenario (green). The goldbug promoters never talk about the red scenario, a 19-year bear market as per 1980-1999!

Looking at this now slightly dated chart, the latest move to $1080 is well in line with the pace of the downtrend in force since mid-2013 and would be nothing to worry about unless this range were to break down, in which case a move under $900 could be well in play. The worst I could see on this chart was $780 at the time but I was sort of favouring a gradual downtrend and then a slow upturn as in he period 1998-2001 (see left of chart below):

As usual, the goldbug websites continue to huff and puff all the same old bull that they have shoved down people's throats in the past several years as they sucked all the suckers in at the top and kept them invested all the way down.

It's about time that people turned away from these shysters and did their own due diligence as well as looking at some balanced analysis.

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