Thursday, 9 October 2014

Gold still in grinding downtrend channels - stepping up within tthem though.

Gold still in grinding downtrend channels, though it is slowly stepping up within tthem. One can draw a number of downtrends but I am still looking at the Andrews pitchfork that defined the original fall from $1800 to $1180 and another downtrend formed from tha $1800 high (Sept 2012) to the two recent highs around $1320 this summer.

Now I see resistance at $1241 and $1270. Highs there would be in line with recent previous highs and would confirm the latter downtrend.

Gold is above its original orange Andrews pitchfork that lines up with the Sept 2012 $1800 high and the subsequent $1520 (mid 2012) and $1180 (June 2013) lows and is sliding down the top of that channel - the recent low just over $1180 last week came close to its upper line.

Bottom line: still a bear market. You can clearly see the slippage in the latter half of this year and the important lower low that was made, breaking below the $1240 low in May 2014. You can also see the wedge formation from June 2013 to July 2014, that has broken down:

In fact, tonight although the hourly chart shows a minor breakout from the recent downtrend, the 240 minute chart shows that gold has perhaps already hit resistance at around $1230, which was support earlier along the slope. Looks like another shorting oppotunity I missed then! :

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