Tuesday, 10 September 2013

Nikkei roars, gold slumps. 2013-09-10

Well, as has been the case fotr the last year, gold in US Dollars and the Nikkei 225 stock index in Japan have been trading approximately opposite to each other.

I am wondering: the catalyst for the start of gold bear market seems to have been the rise in the Japanese Nikkei 225 stpck market which had major lows in 2011, initially in the wake of the earthquake and tsunami.

Then in late 2012, on Abenomics, the Nikkei had a big breakout, more or less as gold broke down September 2012. This continued and the Nikkei spiked up more or less as gold spiked down to its lows is mid-2013.

The recent rally in gold has been somewhat in line with a correction in the Nikkei and now gold is in a downtrend again as the Nikkei took off last week.

The Nikkei more or less is merely a reflection of the US Dollar : Japanese Yen rate. Nikkei up means stronger dollar means gold down.

It’s odd, absolutely not a completely inverse (-100%) correlation of the Nikkei to gold but the major moves have been opposite.

My potetial 12,054 possible target fot eh Nikkei on the basis of the upsloping bearish head and shulders mentioned previously has not been realised. It was good for a tradeable downmove a couple of times but the main downmove has not occurred. Instead, the Nikkei ground sideways to up. The chart formation in hindsight formed what looked like a bullish falling wedge and there has been a big snapbak rally. Meanwhile, during this Nikkei rally, guess what? Gold has resumed its old downtrend slope from earlier in the year (but from a higher level).

1 comment:

abhishek singh said...

Nice blog I appreciate this
Thank you,
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