Wednesday, 28 August 2013

Similarities between S&P500 in 2013 and silver in 2011 are no longer really in force - 2013-08-28

In a previous article, I noted similarities between trading in the S&P500 in 2012-2013 and silver from early 2011 as it went on its run up to $50.

Those similarites are no longer really in force, unless one views the 1687 peak on the S&P500 in May 2013 as being parallel to the $49.75 top in silver in May 2011.

However, the S&P has now made a higher high on the bounce at 1705 or so and silver made a bounce to $44 after its $50 spike peak.

Interestingly, the May 2013 peak in the S&P500 was a spike high and the new high is a rolling top. The May 2011 peak in silver was a spike top and the subseuqnt bu lower high was a rolling top. So the S&P has exceeded its spike high, unlike silver.

Initially, I was looking at the May 2013 peak in the S&P at 1687 to be parallel to the $31.25 peak in silver at the end of 2010 and the S&P correction to be perhaps like silver's correction to $26.30 or so in January 2011. That would have given the possibility of a massive further run on the S&P500 to around 2200-2400 based on silver's rally from its $26 corrction low to the $50 top, in a power uptrend formation.

The S&P is now looking more like a different kind of formation. In fact, the domed secondary new high at 1705 this month is more like the formaton of a three peaks and a domed house formation that started last year. If this formation is valid, then the S&P500 could go back down to 1039. In fact, gold and silver showed similar patterns in 2010-2012:

Here is the S&P chart and a generic 3 peaks and a domed house diagram:

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