Monday, 6 May 2013

Yearly chart for gold long term 1968 - 2013 - outside reversal to the downside forming.

Recently I constructed a long term yearly open-high-low-close (OHLC) chart for gold running from 1968 to 2013 using the excellent data available on the Kitco website for London gold Fix prices.

As it shows, 2012 was still an up year but only perhaps due to a low price at the year start being a bit of a fluke. The high for 2012 was $125 lower than for 2011, for instance.

Even accepting 2012 as an up year, 2013 has shown a massive outside reversal to the downside. Perhaps we can compare this to the part of the chart showing 1980 and 1981 when there was a large similar outside reversal.

When I originally constructed the chart in March, it already showed a reversal to the downside in 2013 but when I revised it today, the reversal is much more pronounced given the move to a $1378 low on the London Fix in mid-April.

I am hoping that this is not a higly bearish sign that the bull market is over - but the price needs to come back very strongly later in 2013 to close the year above $1600 to negate this outside reversal to the downside.

In addition, this yearly chart shows 12 years in a row (2001-2012) without a correction on the yearly scale. It actually makes the 1970s run up look tame on this criterion.

Please click chart to enlarge:

Long Term Yearly Gold OHLC chart 1968-2013 outside reversal to downside forming