As it shows, 2012 was still an up year but only perhaps due to a low price at the year start being a bit of a fluke. The high for 2012 was $125 lower than for 2011, for instance.
Even accepting 2012 as an up year, 2013 has shown a massive outside reversal to the downside. Perhaps we can compare this to the part of the chart showing 1980 and 1981 when there was a large similar outside reversal.
When I originally constructed the chart in March, it already showed a reversal to the downside in 2013 but when I revised it today, the reversal is much more pronounced given the move to a $1378 low on the London Fix in mid-April.
I am hoping that this is not a higly bearish sign that the bull market is over - but the price needs to come back very strongly later in 2013 to close the year above $1600 to negate this outside reversal to the downside.
In addition, this yearly chart shows 12 years in a row (2001-2012) without a correction on the yearly scale. It actually makes the 1970s run up look tame on this criterion.
Please click chart to enlarge:
