Monday, 22 April 2013

Varying Analyst opinions on gold: Armstrong, Nenner, Acampora, Christian - 21 April 2013.

A listener on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense Newshour show (20 April 2013, 2nd segment) commented that Martin Armstrong had said that gold would likely bottom at end of the 1st quarter of 2013 and would then rally significantly, based on market cycles.

Interestingly, David Gurwitz of Charles Nenner Cycles Research said on Kerry Lutz’ podcast a few weeks ago that the same woulld happen. He was looking for gold to bottom in mid to late April before going, perhaps to some target above 2200. Armstrong’s target was apparently 2500 or so.

Both those opinions underline an imminent bull market in gold after this long correction has bottomed.

However, on Jim Puplava’s show (20 April 2013, 1st segment), Technician Ralph Acampora who sees a continuing bull market in stocks said, without further comment, that gold was now in a bear market and was heading for significantly lower prices from here.

Jeff Christian of CPM Group, often accused, unjustifiably in my opinion as being a gold bear, was looking for a gold low of $1430 and said on Kerry Lutz’ podcast recently that he was somewhat surprised that the price fell to $1350 – his opinion is that $1350 was very likely to be the bottom of this correction. However, he sees a trading range for another couple of years, followed by a slow grind higher to a new high above $1920, perhaps not until around the year 2020. He cites increased gold production because of the exploration cycle that kicked off during the last 10 years and says that there probably won’t be much of a downturn in production due to these present lower prices. He thus sees the climb in gold as being  gradual and due to continual high retail demand from China, India and the Middle East, as well as continued strong (but probably not increasing from here) central bank buying from China, Russia and other countries (creditor nations).