Thursday, 5 May 2011

Silver: 38.2% retracement of entire 2008-2011 move reached 2011-05-05

The retracements for this selloff in silver have been analysed by Roger Wiegand and Ben Davies with respect to the move from the last low of $26.35 to the high of $49.75 to give an idea of the story so far.

I wondered if the correction might be in respect to the entire bull market wave from the low of $8.40 in the 2008 credit crisis to the high of $49.75. Ross Clark on Howestreet has just mentioned this for possible analysis in his interview this week.

Those Fibonacci targets would be:
38.2%: $33.95 / 50%: $29.07 / 61.8%: $24.20.

These were calculated from:
49.75-8.40=41.35 move from 2008 low
41.35*38.2/100=15.80 retracement
41.35*50/100=20.68 retracement
41.35*61.8/100=25.55 retracement
Targets are:
38.2%: 49.75-15.80=$33.95 - just about reached today 05/05/2011.
My trading screen showed $34.15 at 9:15 pm in the UK.
50.0%: 49.75-20.68=$29.07
61.8%: 49.75-25.55=$24.20
See chart:
So we have just about had a 38.2% retracement of the entire move from $8.40 to $49.75. That's pretty significant, especially with nearly all of it coming in only 4 days!

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