In reply to Howe Street Broadcast by Ross Clark this week:
http://www.talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/04/silver-exhaustion-alert/
I was reading some old articles by Roland Watson who used to write on silver and he had a thing called the Silver Leverage Indicator or SLI. It is based on (or is in acuality) the rate of change of silver divided by the rate of change in gold (in percentage terms I guess). I have noticed that sometimes silver has been moving 3x as fast as gold in % terms when the Au:Ag price ratio was about 40 or 45:1, giving a 12-15:1 dollar price move gold:silver. However, I cannot find a reliable quantitative description of his indicator. but the silver: gold leverage has been very high recently, no doubt.
Interestingly, on Eric King's program weekly metals wrap last weekend, and he described a $2.87 weekly move in silver versus a $45 weekly move in gold. Interestingly, the ratio of the gold to silver move is 15.68:1 in $ terms, about the same as the classic Isaac Newton gold:silver ratio under the bimetallic standard and silver's % move being more than twice that of gold, as has been the case for a while.
I guess the Silver Leverage Indicator of Roland Watson would be analogous to the RSI on the silver:gold ratio, as silver rises much faster than gold, both the SLI and Ross' RSI would go into high territory.
Very interesting stuff:
http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1174871399.php
Thursday, 14 April 2011
Monday, 14 March 2011
Praying for the people of Japan. 2011-03-14
At our Church here in England on Sunday we prayed for the people of Japan in their time of crisis. Everyone here is shocked at the tragedy that has occurred there. The English reporter Jon Snow of UK Channel 4, reporting from Sendai said in the evening news that he found the response of the Japanese to their crisis to be impressive, with so many resources and such a high level of discipline among the people. It is the first time that any of us have been able to see what a tsunami really looks like. We could only imagine what happened in the Indonesian/Sumatran tsunami a few years ago but now we have seen it from Japan on our TV and it will not be easy to forget. Many of us who live in regions like England where even tiny earthquakes are rare are now better able to understand the dangers that they cause.
I know that my favourite model Sayuki Matsumoto comes from Mie Prefecture, so I pray that Sayuki and her family and friends are safe. I have for a long time been interested in Japan but, since seeing Sayuki, I have wanted to visit someday the country that can bring into the world such beautiful people as her. One day maybe, but my health is not so great for me to travel far.
If you are in Japan and reading this, you have prayers made for you from me and no doubt millions of other people from all over the world. I hope that those who are skilled to help can also send practical help in whatever way possible.
I know that my favourite model Sayuki Matsumoto comes from Mie Prefecture, so I pray that Sayuki and her family and friends are safe. I have for a long time been interested in Japan but, since seeing Sayuki, I have wanted to visit someday the country that can bring into the world such beautiful people as her. One day maybe, but my health is not so great for me to travel far.
If you are in Japan and reading this, you have prayers made for you from me and no doubt millions of other people from all over the world. I hope that those who are skilled to help can also send practical help in whatever way possible.
Tuesday, 1 March 2011
Gold and silver may be on the brink of a breakout - 2011-03-01 1757 GMT
it looks like gold and silver may be on the brink of breakout. Gold at 1429 and silver at 34.54. They are making a hard job of it. Lots of congestion with the old gold triple top from late 2010 at 1423.60, 1424.40 and 1430.60 providing resistance. Silver is near its recent high from last Monday night at 34.4 just in a tight trading range not doing anything while gold battles up through the resistance. Gold is tending to rise more than silver at the moment, because silver is treading water at the high.
If they both go on a rocket ride, it would be good to see!
If they both go on a rocket ride, it would be good to see!
Friday, 25 February 2011
Completion of a ABC correction in silver and gold? 2011-02-25
Well it’s 11:04 GMT London time on 2011-02-25 Friday. It’s been an interesting week of contradictory silver and gold action. They made a high Monday night and silver took a $2 fall. Tuesday, silver made an almost perfect bullish pennant pattern and there was no breakout. The price line just ran out of the apex of the pennant after hugging the upper line looking ready to break out. Gold meanwhile was on the lower line of its pennant. Both climbed on Wednesday but silver without any conviction. Gold went to a higher high, silver drifted about.
The silver pennant seemed to have been morphing into a possible ABC correction with the C-leg to come but gold was still making higher highs.
Gold was stronger than silver, maybe on Libya news and the crude oil spike to over $100 in the WTIC contract.
Then Thursday night/Friday morning came the C-wave down, a magnificent clearout perhaps.
After this, silver is now slightly stronger than gold. My suspicion is that we might get the completion of a C-wave down in gold to one lower low and a higher low in silver to confirm the C-wave bottom. I am going to see if I am correct. In 2 hours time it ay be clear.
All kinds of Elliott Wave patterns were possible during this correction of 3 day duration and it was impossible to call but perhaps it has been resolved now…
However, maybe not! Taking another look at 11:22 GMT I wonder if gold has actually had its ABC correction in the move last night from the highs of yesterday morning. If so, then gold and silver are already in phase. I rather fancy a good move up but could be completely wrong.
It will be fascinating to see what happens when the COMEX opens.
Wow, as a novice trader I can see how much you need to study the markets to succeed. Maybe I should go back to coin collecting!
Footnote, Friday night. Silver has had a slow and choppy upmove, a snall one, with the classic Jim Sinclair "Swiss Stairs" formaiton late on Friday. Could this be the start of a new rally. Wait and see...
I thoroughly recommend listening to Ross Clark's technical analysis of gold and silver on www.howestreet.com here:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/02/metals-tracking-historical/#comment-64
with his charts too:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/files/2011/02/HoweStreet-Gold-Silver-022111_rossclark.pdf
and also his other interviews and charts this year, all lined from:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/author/rossclark/
Listening to all three over this weekend might prepare you for next week, if he is correct in his analysis.
Absolutely excellent! Ross is technical analyst to Bob Hoye who also gives fascinating insights every week in his interviews on the same website.
The silver pennant seemed to have been morphing into a possible ABC correction with the C-leg to come but gold was still making higher highs.
Gold was stronger than silver, maybe on Libya news and the crude oil spike to over $100 in the WTIC contract.
Then Thursday night/Friday morning came the C-wave down, a magnificent clearout perhaps.
After this, silver is now slightly stronger than gold. My suspicion is that we might get the completion of a C-wave down in gold to one lower low and a higher low in silver to confirm the C-wave bottom. I am going to see if I am correct. In 2 hours time it ay be clear.
All kinds of Elliott Wave patterns were possible during this correction of 3 day duration and it was impossible to call but perhaps it has been resolved now…
However, maybe not! Taking another look at 11:22 GMT I wonder if gold has actually had its ABC correction in the move last night from the highs of yesterday morning. If so, then gold and silver are already in phase. I rather fancy a good move up but could be completely wrong.
It will be fascinating to see what happens when the COMEX opens.
Wow, as a novice trader I can see how much you need to study the markets to succeed. Maybe I should go back to coin collecting!
Footnote, Friday night. Silver has had a slow and choppy upmove, a snall one, with the classic Jim Sinclair "Swiss Stairs" formaiton late on Friday. Could this be the start of a new rally. Wait and see...
I thoroughly recommend listening to Ross Clark's technical analysis of gold and silver on www.howestreet.com here:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2011/02/metals-tracking-historical/#comment-64
with his charts too:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/files/2011/02/HoweStreet-Gold-Silver-022111_rossclark.pdf
and also his other interviews and charts this year, all lined from:
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/author/rossclark/
Listening to all three over this weekend might prepare you for next week, if he is correct in his analysis.
Absolutely excellent! Ross is technical analyst to Bob Hoye who also gives fascinating insights every week in his interviews on the same website.
Tuesday, 22 February 2011
Correction and bullish flag in silver all in one day? 2011-02-22
Fabulous correction in silver today! A $2 correction and what might be a bullish flag or triangle with apex at $33. As I write at 2:00, the apex os the triange is 3.5 hours away according to my chart (that would be 23:30 GMT london time). Will we get a breakout or what? It could have done enother leg down earlier to do a Fibonacci 38.2% or 50% correction of the breakout from the Christmas high of $31, but it didn't. Instead we got a flag pattern. Wouldn't it be amazing if this entire correction and flag formation happens in only a single day?
I sent the above message to Aland Roger at http://www.kereport.com/
at:
http://www.kereport.com/2011/02/22/trader-rog-markets-incorporates-situational-alert
I just looked at my charts again. The silver price is right on the upper line near the apex of the flag triangle pattern.
The apex prices at the midlines of the triangles/flags for silver and gold would be $33.005 and $1402 respectively.
Can't wait!
As I close off this message, silver is off a couple of cents. It is actually sliding right down the upper trendline of the flag! "Sliding down the razorblade of life," as Tom Lehrer said in one of his infamous satirical songs.
I sent the above message to Aland Roger at http://www.kereport.com/
at:
http://www.kereport.com/2011/02/22/trader-rog-markets-incorporates-situational-alert
I just looked at my charts again. The silver price is right on the upper line near the apex of the flag triangle pattern.
The apex prices at the midlines of the triangles/flags for silver and gold would be $33.005 and $1402 respectively.
Can't wait!
As I close off this message, silver is off a couple of cents. It is actually sliding right down the upper trendline of the flag! "Sliding down the razorblade of life," as Tom Lehrer said in one of his infamous satirical songs.
Sunday, 20 February 2011
Just a personal opinion. My call on silver. 2011-02-21 2:54 am GMT
I think silver is going to make a Three White Soldiers candlestick pattern and go into a power uptrend on this breaout from $31. So I thought that this Monday 21/2/2011 will be the third white doldier and will breakout form the trend channel that has formed on the rally that took the price back to $31 after the correction from $31 to $26.
I have reasons for this and will try to post some charts later if anyone is interested!
My call on silver is that it will go to $50 by the end of May, in fact probably sooner. The current rally from $6 to 31 has been at a rate of 18.9 cents per day, just short of the 20c needed to get the price to $50 in about 100 days that remain until the end of May.
The start of the rally from $20 to $30 (in fact the entire rally) was an uptrend that had a rate of 10 cents per day. It took about 120 days from 24th August 2010 until thenend of 2010 to get the price from about $18 to $31. After the correction to $26.40, the recovery rally has been in a tight trend channel (like the start of the $20-$30 rally) but steeper than the first rally. Now we may be seeing the start of a power uptrend as Jim Sinclair call it, and what better time to start a power uptrend than on the breakout from the previous 30-year high of $31?
Do your own due diligence! No advice is meant or implied by this blog. I have a long position in physical silver and am excited about it right now.
I have reasons for this and will try to post some charts later if anyone is interested!
My call on silver is that it will go to $50 by the end of May, in fact probably sooner. The current rally from $6 to 31 has been at a rate of 18.9 cents per day, just short of the 20c needed to get the price to $50 in about 100 days that remain until the end of May.
The start of the rally from $20 to $30 (in fact the entire rally) was an uptrend that had a rate of 10 cents per day. It took about 120 days from 24th August 2010 until thenend of 2010 to get the price from about $18 to $31. After the correction to $26.40, the recovery rally has been in a tight trend channel (like the start of the $20-$30 rally) but steeper than the first rally. Now we may be seeing the start of a power uptrend as Jim Sinclair call it, and what better time to start a power uptrend than on the breakout from the previous 30-year high of $31?
Do your own due diligence! No advice is meant or implied by this blog. I have a long position in physical silver and am excited about it right now.
Wednesday, 9 February 2011
Tullow Oil Interesting New Breakout and Chart: 2011-02-09
Tullow Oil has recently broken out of its funk of the year 2010 when it went nowhere.
It recently broke out to 1400p in the last couple of weeks. This is interesting because this is a breakout above a previous high of a year ago at about 1360p and a possible breakout from what looks like an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern lasting a year. These charts are bring placed here to test whether this kind of technical / visual analysis works. The price target from the new chart is 1645p.
New chart 2011-02-09 for Tullow Oil (TLW.L on the London Stock Exchange):
My previous charts make an interesting comparison because I had a target of 1620 as far back as 2009 with interim targets of 1220 and 1280 that were both reached and exceeded before the price retreated into a trading range until now. Here is the first H+S from 2008-2009:
Once the 1280 target was exceeded, the chart looked toppy:
and went into a trading range for a year, forming the new potential H+S pattern as it went.
This longer term chart combines the others and shows the positions of the two inverted H+S patterns:
I sold some Tullow shares at a profit while they were in the trading range but retained half of my position (which was bought by my father at about 624p). It will be interesting to see if the 1620/1645 targets are achieved in the near future. It is strange because this apparent breakout is happening despite the bad news coming out of some North African countries, or perhaps because of it - or perhaps the Egypt political siruation has had no effect and it is all about Tullow itself!
If this 1600+ target is reached soon, then it will be a valuable lesson to me to have some belief in my chart analysis to have have more patience, to wait for targets to be achieved or at least to continue to watch assets of interest that I have charted before.
This posting is merely a market observation and is not in any way to be construed as financial advice and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument at any time.
It recently broke out to 1400p in the last couple of weeks. This is interesting because this is a breakout above a previous high of a year ago at about 1360p and a possible breakout from what looks like an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern lasting a year. These charts are bring placed here to test whether this kind of technical / visual analysis works. The price target from the new chart is 1645p.
New chart 2011-02-09 for Tullow Oil (TLW.L on the London Stock Exchange):
My previous charts make an interesting comparison because I had a target of 1620 as far back as 2009 with interim targets of 1220 and 1280 that were both reached and exceeded before the price retreated into a trading range until now. Here is the first H+S from 2008-2009:
Once the 1280 target was exceeded, the chart looked toppy:
and went into a trading range for a year, forming the new potential H+S pattern as it went.
This longer term chart combines the others and shows the positions of the two inverted H+S patterns:
I sold some Tullow shares at a profit while they were in the trading range but retained half of my position (which was bought by my father at about 624p). It will be interesting to see if the 1620/1645 targets are achieved in the near future. It is strange because this apparent breakout is happening despite the bad news coming out of some North African countries, or perhaps because of it - or perhaps the Egypt political siruation has had no effect and it is all about Tullow itself!
If this 1600+ target is reached soon, then it will be a valuable lesson to me to have some belief in my chart analysis to have have more patience, to wait for targets to be achieved or at least to continue to watch assets of interest that I have charted before.
This posting is merely a market observation and is not in any way to be construed as financial advice and is not a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument at any time.
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