Friday 11th January 2008
New York spot gold rose $4.00 on the day and was quoted at $894.90 at the close. New record highs were again set today. The London Gold Fixes were $893.75 and $891.00. Its sister metal silver closed over 16 dollars an ounce, pretty impressive if you are a silver bug.
Thursday, 10 April 2008
RED LETTER DAY #4! All records broken. 2008-01-10
Thursday 10th January 2008 8.37 pm: "RED LETTER DAY #4"
This is the day when all meaningful records seem finally to be definitively broken. Gold for February 2008 delivery reached a new record intraday high of $897.30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), beating the previous record of $894.40 set on Wednesday. Feb. gold closed +$11.90 at $893.60 on the Nymex. Traders may be betting on interest rate cuts and a lower US dollar after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke spoke today.
Kitco quotes today's London Gold Fixes at AM $874.25 and PM $884.25 (the figues have changed since I looked an hour ago before dinner!) Not record beating! Yesterday's AM Fix was $887.85. Anyway, spot gold Bid/Ask prices are $891.90/$892.70 right now at 20:58 GMT, so gold is a whisker away from $900 after showing more strength today.
The last 6 London Fixes were all above $870, i.e. they were 873.25, 873.50, 887.85, 877.00, 874.25 and finally 884.25 this afternoon.
The only thing that worries me is that on Jim Sinclair's website www.jsmineset.com, he has had some links to major British broadsheet newspapers, 'The Establishment' press, who have been referring to gold as 'the ultimate currency' and talking of it in positive terms after disparaging it for the last 25 years. What can this mean? Is it the top? Do 'the powers that be' want to do a 'distribution' and sell off to the unwitting public at the top as they did in 1980-81? Or are they wanting to get the next stage of the bull market under way because they are already well positioned? Or are they just stating the patently obvious, that the mony and credit system is probably going to collapse (is going to be allowed or made to collapse) and they are just mentioning gold's new records so they don't look too stupid in the future when historians sift through the news archives? Maybe they just need something to write about.
Who cares what they think anyway? I never read the papers.
This is the day when all meaningful records seem finally to be definitively broken. Gold for February 2008 delivery reached a new record intraday high of $897.30 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), beating the previous record of $894.40 set on Wednesday. Feb. gold closed +$11.90 at $893.60 on the Nymex. Traders may be betting on interest rate cuts and a lower US dollar after Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke spoke today.
Kitco quotes today's London Gold Fixes at AM $874.25 and PM $884.25 (the figues have changed since I looked an hour ago before dinner!) Not record beating! Yesterday's AM Fix was $887.85. Anyway, spot gold Bid/Ask prices are $891.90/$892.70 right now at 20:58 GMT, so gold is a whisker away from $900 after showing more strength today.
The last 6 London Fixes were all above $870, i.e. they were 873.25, 873.50, 887.85, 877.00, 874.25 and finally 884.25 this afternoon.
The only thing that worries me is that on Jim Sinclair's website www.jsmineset.com, he has had some links to major British broadsheet newspapers, 'The Establishment' press, who have been referring to gold as 'the ultimate currency' and talking of it in positive terms after disparaging it for the last 25 years. What can this mean? Is it the top? Do 'the powers that be' want to do a 'distribution' and sell off to the unwitting public at the top as they did in 1980-81? Or are they wanting to get the next stage of the bull market under way because they are already well positioned? Or are they just stating the patently obvious, that the mony and credit system is probably going to collapse (is going to be allowed or made to collapse) and they are just mentioning gold's new records so they don't look too stupid in the future when historians sift through the news archives? Maybe they just need something to write about.
Who cares what they think anyway? I never read the papers.
First Sterling gold high > £450. 2008-01-09
Wednesday 9th January 2008 8.21 pm
London Gold Fixes today were $877.85 and $877.00 - the former was a first Sterling high above £450 at £452.15, with a slight dip to £447.56 in the PM Fix. In Euros, they constituted €603.53 and €597.25 - the AM Fix was the first over €600. See the other milestones I mentioned earlier today, in the previous post.
London Gold Fixes today were $877.85 and $877.00 - the former was a first Sterling high above £450 at £452.15, with a slight dip to £447.56 in the PM Fix. In Euros, they constituted €603.53 and €597.25 - the AM Fix was the first over €600. See the other milestones I mentioned earlier today, in the previous post.
RED LETTER DAY #3! Golden milestones. 2008-01-09
Wednesday 9th January 2008 12.44 pm: "RED LETTER DAY #3"
Gold has made another jump this morning. Now, looking at the live charts on Bullionvault.com and more notably goldpreciousmetals.com, I can see that the price is at a number of milestones. This has happened before at a lower level when gold was at the 500 Euro level a while ago. However, this time the round figure levels are more impressive and they all seem to be happening together.
The levels are 900 US Dollars, 600 Euros, 450 Sterling, 100,000 Japanese Yen, 1,000 Australian Dollars, 900 Canadian Dollars and 1,000 Swiss Francs. Add to those 6,000 South African Rand, 10,000 Mexican Pesos, 35,000 Indian Rupees and 6,500 Chinese Yuan for good measure. What a list! The only ones currently exceeded as I write is the Euro, at €600.33, and the Rand, at ZAR 6027.10, quoted on Kitco right now. Oh by the way, it also just passed 1500 Brazilian Reals and 20,000 Russian Roubles!
If these levels are broken through to the upside, will that be significant psychologically? And will it mean support or resistance, buying, selling or holding? Or is it all irrelevant compared to the 'magic' US$1,000 level that is still more than 10% away?
James Turk said to Jim Puplava on financialsense.com last weekend (about 514 minutes into this mp3) that he expected gold might go to $1500 and then pull back to $1200 sometime in 2008. Jim Puplava himself thinks over $1000. Kitco's John Nadler sees a serious correction, probably due to a sudden recession in the economy and jewellery demand dropping through the floor. After all, people are lining up to sell their gold trinkets as in 1980. However, in 1980 the selling of silver for instance was mostly after the peak and into 1981, not before the peak - and we are still going up right now. Jim Sinclair would say that jewellery demand is pretty irrelevant because gold is a (pardon me, "THE") currency - and investment "currency" demand for gold will trump jewellery demand anytime when the going gets tough, like 1979-80 and now. James Turk compares this present period to 1974 rather than 1980. That has an interesting implication. Firstly, gold and commodities peaked and then there was a major correction at a similar time to when the stock market crashed in 1974. Gold lost 48% from $198 to $103 over the next couple of years, before making its second ascent into $850 in 1978-1980. His comment implies that we are still in the first half of the bull market and that his $1500 target is the peak of the first half.
Personally, I see gold at $1000 this January rather than 'sometime this year'. If we see a major banking institution go down (not just a realtively minor ex-local building society like Northern Rock but a famous high street or investment bank 'name') then possibly the next 10% on gold to reach $1000 would be a small part of the up move and $1500 is not at all outrageous. Even if we don't, it may be only because the central banks will pump trillions of $ equivalent into their respective banking systems to save the necks of these dreadful financial institutions, which should all be allowed to sink without trace to be replaced with gold money again. They will however unfortunately be saved if at all possible, which will be at public expense one way or another. The cost will be met with huge inflation, maybe hyperinflation, and the effective wiping out of the value of everyone's savings and pension schemes, even if nominal values don't fall.
Now gold is (safely?) over treble its low in US dollars and double its low in Sterling (when that idiot Gordon Brown sold 60% of the UK's gold at $274 an ounce), another doubling or trebling in the next few years is feasible. Ditto for oil. Personally, I think we will see large currency devaluations as well with major inflation and we can easily see $10,000 gold, $1,000 oil, $300 silver and $1000 uranium. Bookmark this page to see if I'm right.
An interesting thought is that a move by one single country to go to a gold backed currency while the Western financial system is in unprecedented crisis, could be a mega-winning strategy in terms of attracting inward investment and economic strength. Will it be China? Will it be Russia? It would have to be a nuclear armed nation, otherwise they would be crushed with the US military boot.
RED LETTER DAY #2! More broken records. 2008-01-08
Tuesday 8th January 2008: 11.07 pm : "RED LETTER DAY #2"
Today has seen two new all time high London Gold Fixes at USD 873.25 and 873.50, as seen on the excellent http://www.kitco.com/ind/dorsch/jan022008.html homepage as I write.
Meanwhile back at the ranch (in the futures market) there is a new all time high close in the January contract of $878. I am wondering whether Jim Sinclair's $887.50 on 21 January 1980 was for the January 1980 contract, because the $895 high shown on the Chart in 'Schwager on Futures' (Amazon UK) was labelled on the chart as the April 1980 contract. Maybe not. That might explain the difference. Anyway, today's Jan 2008 Futures contract close was $878.00, February's (the most active contract at present according to Reuters) was $880.30 (they say that it compares to a record of $875 from 1980), March's was 883.00, April's was $887.20 and June's $893.20. If you want to go out to December 2011, the contract is at $1007.00, already in four figures, along with June 2012 and Dec 2012, both also over $1000!
Anyway, so basically all records are down now, because I looked at earlier today at the intraday highs NYMEX Futures page and the intraday highs were: Jun'08:$892.00 and Aug'08:$894.30. These intraday highs are now not displayed and my figures were only halfway through the day so they may have been beaten already!
John Nadler of Kitco gives the spot gold close at $877.50 bid with a net gain of $18.20 per ounce and an intraday high of $881.80 is quoted on Kitco's Kitco's front page.
It would be pretty pedantic to say we haven't broken the records now, wouldn't it? It actually gets complicated because there are so many contracts and fixes and spot prices and intraday highs and closing prices! Does it all really matter? You will be paying more than ever for the actual stuff on the physical market; you could have a nominal profit on your Krugerrands bought in 1980, that you never thought you would ever sell and get all your money back. ALso, thingsd will change tomorrow - in fact the spot market is open again as I write, wonderful Kitco is saying SPOT MARKET IS OPEN closes in 19 hrs. 21 mins. Jan 08, 2008 18:08 NY Time Bid/Ask 878.10 - 878.90.
For those of us across the Pond, the London Fixes were AM: £441.57 PM: £442.03, equivalent to 593.81 and 593.29 Euros respectively. Who cares says Doctor Darryl Robert Schoon in his article Christmas On Threadneedle Street & The Coming Depression. the basic sentiment of his missive is that the credit system in place since 1694 and the start of the Bank of England is collapsing and so will the infuence of Britain on the world because of this event. Makes interesting reading.
"RED LETTER DAY!" Record Fixes! 2008-01-03
Thursday 3rd January 2008: 9.00 pm : "RED LETTER DAY"
Why? Gold has recorded two London Fixes today that both beat the record $850 from 21st January 1980! The AM Fix was a whopping $865.35 and the PM Fix was $858.85. The AM Fix constitutes a record smashed by over $15!
So many articles on the Internet got themselves confused over 'records broken' yesterday on the 2nd January before the close of the Futures market, but the intraday high of 21/1/1980 of around $895 still stands. Anyway, the 1980 highest Gold Futures closing price was broken already in 2007, so who cares whether it was again yesterday - it might be broken again and again going forward as many new highs can now come. The only goal to beat that I can see is now the all time intraday high in the futures market. (I can't find any information on the intraday spot high in 1980 so I am leaving that one for some sleuth to deduce.)
Why? Gold has recorded two London Fixes today that both beat the record $850 from 21st January 1980! The AM Fix was a whopping $865.35 and the PM Fix was $858.85. The AM Fix constitutes a record smashed by over $15!
So many articles on the Internet got themselves confused over 'records broken' yesterday on the 2nd January before the close of the Futures market, but the intraday high of 21/1/1980 of around $895 still stands. Anyway, the 1980 highest Gold Futures closing price was broken already in 2007, so who cares whether it was again yesterday - it might be broken again and again going forward as many new highs can now come. The only goal to beat that I can see is now the all time intraday high in the futures market. (I can't find any information on the intraday spot high in 1980 so I am leaving that one for some sleuth to deduce.)
Wages - You could have read it here first! 2008-01-03
You could have read it here first!
Check out this article from 2nd January by the excellent Gary Dorsch, where he quotes Germany’s Bild am Sonntag, where Axel Weber the Bundesbank chief states that "high energy and food prices would keep inflation elevated through the first half of 2008, but warned European workers not to ask for higher wages to compensate for the higher cost of living." You could have read that here two months ago on my Wednesday 31st October 2007 8pm entry! It will not be a wage-price spiral, just a price spiral. This will be one of the ways that the general public will be fleeced and made to pay for the iniquities of the banking and credit system that are finally beginning to be exposed, bit by bit.
Check out this article from 2nd January by the excellent Gary Dorsch, where he quotes Germany’s Bild am Sonntag, where Axel Weber the Bundesbank chief states that "high energy and food prices would keep inflation elevated through the first half of 2008, but warned European workers not to ask for higher wages to compensate for the higher cost of living." You could have read that here two months ago on my Wednesday 31st October 2007 8pm entry! It will not be a wage-price spiral, just a price spiral. This will be one of the ways that the general public will be fleeced and made to pay for the iniquities of the banking and credit system that are finally beginning to be exposed, bit by bit.
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